US initial jobless claims fell -1k to 219k in the week ending December 21, slightly higher than expectation of 218k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 227k. Continuing claims rose 46k to 1910k in the week ending December 14, highest since November 3, 2021. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3k […]

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It’s never too late to believe in Santa. Investors on Monday were shrugging off the bad news of past week – especially the one that suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut its rates only two times in 2025 due to a too resilient US economy. Yesterday’s data that showed that the US durable […]

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Formally, inflation figures and lower-than-forecast expectations helped the market to find ground for a rebound. However, the declines of the previous days may have broken the backbone of the bull market. A couple of technical signals indicate this. Primarily, there is a series of 11 sessions of declines in the Dow Jones. This is one […]

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US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to 104.7 in December, falling short of expectations for 113.2 and down from 112.8 in November. Present Situation Index slipped by -1.2 points to 140.2. The more forward-looking Expectations Index plunged -12.6 points to 81.1, nearing the critical 80 threshold that often signals recession risks. Dana M. Peterson, Chief […]

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Dollar edged higher in subdued holiday trading, maintaining its recent  strength but staying within a narrow range below last week’s highs against major currencies. Markets largely brushed aside the disappointing US durable goods orders data, as the series is known for its volatility. Moreover, traders are prioritizing labor market and consumption trends, which Fed views […]

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Stock market sentiment is moving out of the extreme fear zone it plunged into last week, and the dollar has paused its strengthening. Friday’s CPI report came in slightly weaker than average forecasts, reducing the fear of future Fed monetary policy. Traders probably assumed that the Fed had better information about recent inflationary trends, which […]

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US durable goods orders dropped -1.1% mom in November to USD 285.1B, significantly missing market expectations of a -0.3% mom decline. This also marks the third decline in the last four months. Excluding transportation, orders edged down -0.1% mom to USD 189.6B, while orders excluding defense fell -0.3% mom to USD 267.4B. The transportation equipment […]

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The Canadian dollar posted its fourth straight losing week, declining about 1%. In Monday’s European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4397, up 0.16% at the time of writing. Canada’s GDP expected to remain at 0.1% The market is keeping expectations low for today’s GDP report, with a forecast of 0.1% m/m for October after a […]

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Last week was chaotic. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish 25bp cut, the hint from the dot plot that there would be only two rate cuts next year instead of four – because the US economy is too strong to continue the cuts as previously predicted – and the US debt limit shenanigans even before Trump […]

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The financial markets were jolted by Fed’s hawkish rate cut last week, sending ripples across stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, and even cryptocurrencies. Fed’s indication of prolonged restrictive monetary policy fueled risk aversion, pushing Dollar to end the week as the strongest performer in the currency markets, supported by surging yields and elevated Fed expectations. […]

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The Federal Reserve’s policy change and economic projections have significantly impacted markets, leading to a rise in US yields. The US PCE data released on Friday rose less than expected, alleviating some selling pressure on US equities. The Bank of Japan held rates steady, defying expectations of a rate cut, while the risk of a […]

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Canadian Highlights The Fall Economic Statement (FES) was delivered amid a chaotic week for the federal government. Larger deficits and modest stimulus were features, although the FES is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada’s thinking on policy. Data on the real economy was mixed, with gains in home sales and starts in November, but […]

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Summary United States: That’s a Wrap The outlook for 2025 is riddled with uncertainty, yet data released this week demonstrate a U.S. economy that retains momentum. Ascertaining what level of policy restraint achieves the careful balance of keeping inflation in check and easing stress on interest-rate sensitive sectors will dominate the monetary policy discussion come […]

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The tradition of central banks hosting meetings just before Christmas continued this year with policy decisions in the US, Japan, UK, Norway, and Sweden. The largest present came from the US Federal Reserve in the shape of a significant hawkish surprise. Fed cut the policy rate target by 25bp to 4.25-4.50% as expected, but Powell delivered […]

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The U.S. dollar ends the year on a strong note, hitting two-year highs at 108.45. The Fed expects a 50-point rate cut for the full year 2025 versus 4 cuts one quarter earlier, citing higher inflation forecasts and a stubbornly strong labour market. This fundamental change has given a new impetus to the dollar’s rise […]

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Dollar’s strong rally paused in early US trading after PCE inflation data came in below expectations, easing concerns that Fed might maintain higher rates for an extended period. Markets are also digesting remarks from Fed officials following the hawkish rate cut earlier in the week. Most notably, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, the sole dissenter […]

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Markets A looming US government shutdown starting as soon as tonight is capturing market and media attention. Policymakers had agreed on a bipartisan deal to fund spending through March 24. Enter Trump and Musk. Both urged Republicans to kill the deal, a.o. because it didn’t raise the debt ceiling. Trump otherwise has to address the […]

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Personal income grew 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) in November, a deceleration relative to October’s outsized 0.7% gain. Personal income is 5.3% higher than 12 months ago, well above the pace of inflation. Accounting for inflation and taxes, real personal disposable income grew 0.2% m/m, slower than the 0.5% pace in the prior month. Spending remained robust, […]

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US headline PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in November, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) also rose 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Prices for goods increased less than 0.1% mom and prices for services increased 0.2% mom. Food prices increased 0.2% mom and energy prices […]

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Brent crude oil prices fell below 73 USD per barrel on Friday, reflecting ongoing downward pressure. The market is poised to close the week with losses as a robust US dollar weighs heavily on commodity prices. This week, the US Federal Reserve signalled a measured approach to reducing borrowing costs in 2025, sending the US […]

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