It’s never too late to believe in Santa. Investors on Monday were shrugging off the bad news of past week – especially the one that suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut its rates only two times in 2025 due to a too resilient US economy. Yesterday’s data that showed that the US durable […]

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Nasdaq 100 reversed from strong support level 21000.00 Likely to rise to resistance level 22000.00 Nasdaq 100 index recently reversed up from the strong support level 21000.00 (former resistance from the start of November), intersecting with the support trendline of the daily up channel from November and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse […]

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Formally, inflation figures and lower-than-forecast expectations helped the market to find ground for a rebound. However, the declines of the previous days may have broken the backbone of the bull market. A couple of technical signals indicate this. Primarily, there is a series of 11 sessions of declines in the Dow Jones. This is one […]

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Last week was chaotic. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish 25bp cut, the hint from the dot plot that there would be only two rate cuts next year instead of four – because the US economy is too strong to continue the cuts as previously predicted – and the US debt limit shenanigans even before Trump […]

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The financial markets were jolted by Fed’s hawkish rate cut last week, sending ripples across stocks, bonds, currencies, precious metals, and even cryptocurrencies. Fed’s indication of prolonged restrictive monetary policy fueled risk aversion, pushing Dollar to end the week as the strongest performer in the currency markets, supported by surging yields and elevated Fed expectations. […]

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The Federal Reserve’s policy change and economic projections have significantly impacted markets, leading to a rise in US yields. The US PCE data released on Friday rose less than expected, alleviating some selling pressure on US equities. The Bank of Japan held rates steady, defying expectations of a rate cut, while the risk of a […]

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Markets A looming US government shutdown starting as soon as tonight is capturing market and media attention. Policymakers had agreed on a bipartisan deal to fund spending through March 24. Enter Trump and Musk. Both urged Republicans to kill the deal, a.o. because it didn’t raise the debt ceiling. Trump otherwise has to address the […]

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A transition from a Fed “dovish pivot” to a “normalization” pivot may put a halt to this year-end seasonal “Santa Rally” on the US stock indices. Nasdaq 100 momentum and market breadth have weakened which supports a potential medium-term (multi-week) corrective decline sequence. Watch the 20,790 downside trigger level of the Nasdaq 100. The Nasdaq […]

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Markets Front end US yields returned a few bps of the sharp Fed-induced gains yesterday but the long end extended its march higher. The 10-30-yr bucket added between 4.8 and 5.9 bps. Economic data, while second tier, again in most cases underscored the country’s economic resilience. European swap rates gapped higher in a first response […]

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A week packed with central bank decisions is coming to an end with a sour taste in everybody’s mouth. The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to cut rates by 25bp was fully meaningless and the incoming data is a proof. The US Q3 growth was revised to 3.1% from 2.8% printed earlier, the sales growth was […]

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In focus today In the euro area, we get data on consumer confidence for December. Consumer confidence has been on a rising trend the past two years but in November it unexpectedly declined. It will be very import for the growth outlook to see if the decline was just a blip or it continued in […]

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Markets Yesterday’s hawkish FOMC cut still resonated today. The front end of the curve outperformed slightly after US money markets even outhawked the Fed, looking to only 1 instead 2 rate cuts next year. The US 2-yr yield returns 4.5 bps of yesterday’s 15 bps gain. Long-end US bond yields remain upwardly oriented with the […]

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On 17th December, analysing the Nasdaq 100 chart (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen), we: → Drew a blue upward channel relevant for 2024; → Noted that the price was near the upper boundary of the channel, while the RSI indicator had entered the overbought zone; → Suggested that bulls might face difficulties in pushing […]

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Markets The Fed lowered policy rates yesterday from 4.5%-4.75% to 4.25-4.5%, a level chair Powell said is still “meaningfully restrictive”. The decision was expected but not unanimous. Cleveland Fed Hammack voted to keep rates steady which given the circumstances had a lot to say for. The economy is doing fine with GDP forecasts left unchanged […]

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In focus today A packed European central bank day kicks off with the Riksbank decision at 9:30 CET. We expect a 25bp cut to 2.50% and that the central bank will maintain a message of more cuts at the beginning of 2025. Following the November decision to cut by 50bp to 2.75%, the communication has […]

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Sometimes, the truth is hard to say—and even harder to hear. The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced another 25bp cut as widely expected and priced in, but hinted that there will be just about two rate cuts throughout next year. The GDP forecasts for this year and the next were revised higher, the unemployment rate lower, […]

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Markets When (core) markets barely move the way they do today it’s because there’s little news or important events are looming. It’s both in this case. An empty economic calendar and the Fed policy meeting tonight resulted in technical and directionless trading in FI and FX markets. US yields swapped tiny gains of 1.5 bps […]

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The forex and stock markets are holding steady today, with limited volatility as traders anticipate FOMC rate decision and updated economic projections. A 25bps rate cut, reducing the target range to 4.25–4.50%, is virtually certain. However, the market’s focus lies on the tone and guidance Fed delivers. Critical questions include whether a pause in easing […]

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Canada joined the global political gloom. The sudden resignation of the finance minister on Monday started raising questions about Trudeau’s leadership as politicians there try to find ways to deal with economic slowdown topped by Trump’s tariff threats. Happily for the Bank of Canada (BoC), inflation dropped below the 2% target for the second time […]

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In focus today Focus today will be on tonight’s FOMC meeting. We expect a 25bp cut, which is also fully discounted by markets. Apart from the rate decision, market attention will be on the updated rate projections, and especially on the FOMC’s latest view on the terminal rate level. We think Chair Powell will aim […]

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