The tradition of central banks hosting meetings just before Christmas continued this year with policy decisions in the US, Japan, UK, Norway, and Sweden. The largest present came from the US Federal Reserve in the shape of a significant hawkish surprise. Fed cut the policy rate target by 25bp to 4.25-4.50% as expected, but Powell delivered […]

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Brent crude oil prices fell below 73 USD per barrel on Friday, reflecting ongoing downward pressure. The market is poised to close the week with losses as a robust US dollar weighs heavily on commodity prices. This week, the US Federal Reserve signalled a measured approach to reducing borrowing costs in 2025, sending the US […]

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A week packed with central bank decisions is coming to an end with a sour taste in everybody’s mouth. The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s decision to cut rates by 25bp was fully meaningless and the incoming data is a proof. The US Q3 growth was revised to 3.1% from 2.8% printed earlier, the sales growth was […]

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Summary With China particularly sensitive to changes in U.S. trade and tariff policy, we find value in laying out scenarios for how China’s economy and currency could evolve going forward. In this report, we outline the policy assumptions underpinning our base case for China GDP growth and the renminbi. We also offer views on how […]

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The forex market began the week on a subdued note, with mild risk-off sentiment setting the tone. China’s latest economic data painted a bleak picture, with retail sales significantly underperforming expectations and fixed asset investment experiencing a deeper decline. While industrial production growth met forecasts, it failed to offset concerns about the broader economic slowdown. […]

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Markets German and EMU yields on Friday initially only showed minor gains, but finally extended the rebound that gradually developed earlier last week. US yields added 5.4 bps (2-y) to 6.9 bps (10-y). There were no important US data, but markets apparently are pondering whether recent solid US activity data, slightly higher inflation and uncertainty […]

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China’s latest efforts to convince investors that it will boost its economy with great stimulus measures had the same reaction than the previous ones: disappointment. On Friday, the Chinese authorities repeated that they will boost consumption but the lack of details reversed the pre-announcement enthusiasm and sent the CSI 300 more than 2% lower. And […]

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In focus today Today all eyes are on the euro area December flash PMIs as the very large decline in November caused significant market moves. There was nothing positive in the November report where the services PMI fell below 50 to 49.5 for the first time since January, and the manufacturing PMI remained stuck at […]

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Key insights from the week that was. While the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% was widely anticipated, there were noteworthy shifts in language in the decision statement. Most poignant was the removal of the “not ruling anything in or out” guidance that stood in place for the much of this […]

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In focus today In the euro area, we expect the ECB to deliver a 25bp rate cut. Although that is the consensus, markets price in around a 15% probability of a 50bp cut this morning according to Reuters. Rather than focusing on the size of the rate cut, we should focus on where the policy […]

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Markets Today’s November US CPI inflation numbers convinced final doubters that the Fed would stick to the plan set out in the September dot plot and lower rates by 25 bps at its policy meeting next year. The data printed bang in line with expectations: a 0.3% monthly increase in both headline and core CPI […]

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Dollar showed minimal reaction, other than some initial jitters, to November’s US CPI data, holding steady within its range as the report largely aligned with expectations. Headline inflation edged up, while core inflation remained flat, refusing to trend lower. With no surprise, the data cleared the way for a 25bps rate cut by Fed next […]

The post Dollar Steady Post-CPI as Yen Slips; Aussie Faces Key Jobs Test appeared first on Action Forex.

Australian Dollar continued its decline today as speculation mounted that China might allow Yuan to weaken in 2025 to counteract the economic impact of increased US trade tariffs under the incoming Trump administration. While no official announcement has been made, Beijing appears to ready to signal greater reliance on market-driven currency valuation. Also, according to […]

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Euro’s selloff accelerated today, breaking to a new 2024 low against Sterling. The common currency also weakened notably against the Swiss Franc, even as it remained relatively steady against other peers. Market sentiment appears to be pricing in dovish guidance from ECB at its upcoming meeting, where a standard 25bps rate cut is expected over […]

The post Euro Hits 2024 Low vs Sterling as ECB Dovish Expectations Build appeared first on Action Forex.

Gold prices are being supported by a shift in Chinese monetary policy, and geopolitical developments. China has resumed gold purchases after a six-month pause. From a technical perspective, gold is currently caught between support at $2650 and resistance at $2700. A break above $2700 could signal further upside potential. Gold has started the week on […]

The post Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes $2,700 as Fed Rate Cut Looms, Geopolitics in Focus appeared first on Action Forex.

Markets The Chinese Politburo’s directive changed risk sentiment at the start of European trading from slightly risk-off because of developments in Syria to mildly risk-on given the firm commitment to support the ailing economy. Extraordinary countercyclical fiscal measures will be complemented by a “moderately loose” monetary policy stance (“prudent” since 2011) with a firm commitment […]

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Sentiment in Chinese equities reversed suddenly to a significantly more bullish state after the Politburo – which is the highest-decision making bodies within the Communist Party – pledged to embrace a ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy in 2025. This is a meaningful dovish shift from the ‘prudent’ stance of the past 14 years, hinting that further […]

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In focus today In Norway, we expect core inflation to remain unchanged at 2.7% y/y in November, a tad lower than consensus at 2.8%. If we are proven right, this will once again be below Norges Bank’s forecast from the latest MPR at 3.0%, and in isolation contribute to a downward revision of the rate […]

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Australian Dollar dropped sharply in Asian session following a significant dovish turn in RBA’s communication. After holding rates steady at 4.35%, the central bank signaled growing confidence that inflationary pressures are easing, marking a departure from its previously vigilant tone. While May remains the most likely timing for a rate cut according to many economists, […]

The post Aussie Falls on RBA Dovish Shift; China’s Stimulus Optimism Wanes appeared first on Action Forex.

China’s trade data for November showed weak signals as exports grew 6.7% yoy to USD 312.3B, down sharply from October’s 12.7% yoy expansion and missing expectations of 8.5% growth. Export performance varied across key regions, with shipments to the US rising 8% yoy, to the EU up 7.2% yoy, and to ASEAN growing by 14.9% […]

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