Summary
United States: The Song Remains the Same
- Incoming economic data continue to illuminate pockets of stress in the U.S. economy. The unwinding of strikes and hurricane effects lifted nonfarm payrolls by 227K in November; however, job gains remain highly concentrated by industry. Openings also continue to trend lower through the month volatility. Meanwhile, tariff-related stress is beginning to form in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
- Next week: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Tue.), CPI (Wed.), Federal Budget Balance (Wed.)
International: Potpourri of Global Economic Events and Data
- Even though Thanksgiving has passed, market participants had their plates full this week with international political developments, economic events and data releases. Political uncertainty took hold amid headline-making developments in South Korea and France, while we also gained further insight into economic conditions in a variety of advanced and emerging economies.
- Next week: Bank of Canada (Wed.), Brazilian Central Bank (Wed.), European Central Bank (Thu.)
Interest Rate Watch: Hawk or Dove, Data-Dependency Name of the Game
- The Fed’s blackout period—or two-week stretch ahead of its meeting where Fed officials do not make public policy comments—begins this Saturday. Recent comments suggest members believe the path for policy has grown more uncertain, though there remains broad support for a gradual data-dependent reduction in rates.
Topic of the Week: Bad Day for Barnier
- On Wednesday, the French government collapsed after its National Assembly voted to oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier. President Macron now faces the difficult decision of appointing another prime minister to navigate the fragmented Assembly and pass a budget bill for 2025.
