The Australian dollar has posted slight losses on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6247, down 0.18% at the time of writing. RBA minutes hint at rate cut The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes from the December meeting were significant although they didn’t have much impact on the Australian dollar. The minutes […]

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Dollar edged higher in subdued holiday trading, maintaining its recent  strength but staying within a narrow range below last week’s highs against major currencies. Markets largely brushed aside the disappointing US durable goods orders data, as the series is known for its volatility. Moreover, traders are prioritizing labor market and consumption trends, which Fed views […]

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As markets wind down for the year-end holiday period, forex trading activity turns subdued, with limited momentum across major pairs. Dollar, while maintaining its position as the strongest currency of the month, is facing challenges in decisively breaking last month’s highs against European majors. However, the greenback still made some headway against Yen and commodity […]

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Dollar ended as the strongest performer last week, boosted by a surge in U.S. Treasury yields following persistent inflation data. Despite expectations of another 25bps rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, stubborn price pressures are likely to slow the pace of policy easing next year. Adding to the caution, inflation uncertainties under the incoming […]

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RBA has shifted to a less hawkish monetary policy stance. The interest rate swaps market has started to price in a higher chance of the first RBA interest rate cut to come in February 2025. The 2-year and 10-year yield spreads between Australian government sovereign bonds and US Treasuries continued to narrow. Growing risk for […]

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This week has been rich in terms of interest rate cuts from major central banks. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) didn’t cut its rates but gave an unexpectedly dovish statement, citing that the RBA officials are turning more confident that inflation is on path toward their policy goal. The Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered […]

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The RBA’s language change this week revealed a change in thinking driven by shifts in the data. But some data surprises might just be head fakes. Something happened between 28 November and 9 December to shift the RBA’s thinking. The first of these dates marked a speech by Governor Bullock that can only be described […]

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Key insights from the week that was. While the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% was widely anticipated, there were noteworthy shifts in language in the decision statement. Most poignant was the removal of the “not ruling anything in or out” guidance that stood in place for the much of this […]

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Markets November US CPI data came in bang in line with consensus. Monthly growth of 0.3% for both the headline and the core series resulted in annual readings of respectively 2.7% (from 2.6%) and 3.3% (stable). Contrarians betting on a status quo at next week’s FOMC meeting threw in the towel in absence of an […]

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Australian Dollar staged an impressive rebound today, driven by robust employment data that surprised markets and cast doubt on the likelihood of a February rate cut by RBA. The stronger-than-expected labor market performance challenges the dovish sentiment established earlier in the week when RBA softened its inflation vigilance stance. In the aftermath of RBA meeting, […]

The post SNB and ECB to Cut, Aussie Rebounds on Job Data appeared first on Action Forex.

Dollar showed minimal reaction, other than some initial jitters, to November’s US CPI data, holding steady within its range as the report largely aligned with expectations. Headline inflation edged up, while core inflation remained flat, refusing to trend lower. With no surprise, the data cleared the way for a 25bps rate cut by Fed next […]

The post Dollar Steady Post-CPI as Yen Slips; Aussie Faces Key Jobs Test appeared first on Action Forex.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser addressed the implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs at an event today. He highlighted that while higher global tariffs could depress activity across supply chains, the full extent of the effects would depend on various factors, including currency adjustments and fiscal responses in affected economies. “Given this uncertainty, […]

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The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, maintaining it at a 13-year high for the past 13 months. Most of the RBA’s peers have moved to ease monetary policy at various points this year, including aggressive cuts by neighbouring RBNZ, suggesting that inflation is on a downward trajectory. Australian consumer […]

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Markets The Chinese Politburo’s directive changed risk sentiment at the start of European trading from slightly risk-off because of developments in Syria to mildly risk-on given the firm commitment to support the ailing economy. Extraordinary countercyclical fiscal measures will be complemented by a “moderately loose” monetary policy stance (“prudent” since 2011) with a firm commitment […]

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Sentiment in Chinese equities reversed suddenly to a significantly more bullish state after the Politburo – which is the highest-decision making bodies within the Communist Party – pledged to embrace a ‘moderately loose’ monetary policy in 2025. This is a meaningful dovish shift from the ‘prudent’ stance of the past 14 years, hinting that further […]

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In focus today In Norway, we expect core inflation to remain unchanged at 2.7% y/y in November, a tad lower than consensus at 2.8%. If we are proven right, this will once again be below Norges Bank’s forecast from the latest MPR at 3.0%, and in isolation contribute to a downward revision of the rate […]

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Australian Dollar dropped sharply in Asian session following a significant dovish turn in RBA’s communication. After holding rates steady at 4.35%, the central bank signaled growing confidence that inflationary pressures are easing, marking a departure from its previously vigilant tone. While May remains the most likely timing for a rate cut according to many economists, […]

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The RBA remains on hold with the cash rate kept at 4.35%. But the Board is gaining confidence in its own forecasts that inflation is coming down. As expected, the RBA Board held the cash rate steady at 4.35% following its meeting this week. The Board remains concerned that underlying inflation remains above target, with […]

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RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.35% as widely expected, but the accompanying statement marked a clear pivot towards a more dovish stance. While May remains the more likely timing for the first rate cut, February is now emerging as a real possibility, depending on upcoming Q4 jobs and inflation data from Australia. The […]

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35 per cent and the interest rate paid on Exchange Settlement balances unchanged at 4.25 per cent. Underlying inflation remains too high. Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply […]

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