The Federal Reserve’s policy change and economic projections have significantly impacted markets, leading to a rise in US yields. The US PCE data released on Friday rose less than expected, alleviating some selling pressure on US equities. The Bank of Japan held rates steady, defying expectations of a rate cut, while the risk of a […]

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Canadian Highlights The Fall Economic Statement (FES) was delivered amid a chaotic week for the federal government. Larger deficits and modest stimulus were features, although the FES is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada’s thinking on policy. Data on the real economy was mixed, with gains in home sales and starts in November, but […]

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Summary United States: That’s a Wrap The outlook for 2025 is riddled with uncertainty, yet data released this week demonstrate a U.S. economy that retains momentum. Ascertaining what level of policy restraint achieves the careful balance of keeping inflation in check and easing stress on interest-rate sensitive sectors will dominate the monetary policy discussion come […]

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The final major data point from Statistics Canada in 2024 will be Monday’s gross domestic product release for October, which will be the last GDP print before the Bank of Canada’s Jan. 29 meeting. We look for a 0.2% increase that would be the strongest monthly gain since April, and firmer than the 0.1% advance […]

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The tradition of central banks hosting meetings just before Christmas continued this year with policy decisions in the US, Japan, UK, Norway, and Sweden. The largest present came from the US Federal Reserve in the shape of a significant hawkish surprise. Fed cut the policy rate target by 25bp to 4.25-4.50% as expected, but Powell delivered […]

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Key insights from the week that was. As is tradition in Australia, the Federal Government delivered its mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in the lead up to Christmas. As anticipated, this update highlighted a troubling combination of fading revenue windfalls and persistent strength in spending across critical services, infrastructure, cost-of-living measures and state/local grants. While […]

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Canadian Highlights The Bank of Canada lowered its policy rate by 50 bps to 3.25%. This is the second straight upsized cut to interest rates, and marks a cumulative 175 bps of easing since the Bank first lowered rates in June. There are more cuts to come in 2025, but the Bank’s forward-looking comments signaled […]

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Summary United States: Sticky Inflation, Sticky Wicket for the Fed Price data this week showed that inflation remains stubbornly above the FOMC’s target. Overall inflation has trended sideways in recent months, and while we do not expect this week’s data to prevent the Fed from cutting another 25 bps next week, it will likely contribute […]

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Markets had a volatile week, with US 100 (Nasdaq 100) reaching new highs and a strong likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week. Major central bank meetings dominate the week ahead. The BoJ faces a tough decision on whether to raise interest rates, with recent data supporting a hike. The US Dollar Index (DXY) […]

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Canadian consumer price index growth is expected to have eased slightly in November after picking up in October, which is consistent with a persistently softening economy that’s left broader inflation pressures tracking at or below the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. We expect headline inflation to have eased to 1.9% in November. Price growth in […]

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As economic data continues to confirm that the inflation problem is more or less over, there is no longer a need for central banks to maintain restrictive levels of interest rates. Hence, this has been a week of rate cuts, and we expect next week to be the same – with some important nuances and […]

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Fed seen cutting in December, pausing in January BoJ leans towards keeping rates steady BoE seen ending 2025 on the sidelines as well Flash PMIs, UK and Canada CPIs, and core PCE also on tap Fed seen taking the sidelines in January Following the RBA, the BoC, the SNB and the ECB, the central bank […]

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Key insights from the week that was. While the RBA’s decision to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% was widely anticipated, there were noteworthy shifts in language in the decision statement. Most poignant was the removal of the “not ruling anything in or out” guidance that stood in place for the much of this […]

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US Jobs report all but confirms a December rate cut, with markets pricing in an 80% probability. Nasdaq nears 22,000 as US equities continue their strong performance, with the S&P 500 also hitting record highs. Global markets await US CPI and ECB decisions, with expectations of a 25 bps rate cut from the ECB. Focus […]

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Canadian Highlights The odds of a 50 basis-point rate cut rose to 80% as the unemployment rate ticked up to its highest level since January 2017 (excluding the pandemic). There are notable positives in the jobs report. Employment rose by more than twice the consensus forecast, and the employment rate held steady in October, breaking […]

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We expect the Bank of Canada’s final policy decision of 2024 on Wednesday to be another 50 basis point interest rate cut—adding to a 50 bps cut in October and 125 bps in total cuts since June. Canada’s economic backdrop has yet to crumble in a way that would cause the BoC to panic, but […]

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Summary United States: The Song Remains the Same Incoming economic data continue to illuminate pockets of stress in the U.S. economy. The unwinding of strikes and hurricane effects lifted nonfarm payrolls by 227K in November; however, job gains remain highly concentrated by industry. Openings also continue to trend lower through the month volatility. Meanwhile, tariff-related […]

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This week, we published our macroeconomic projections for the global economy and the Nordics. In the euro area, we expect growth to slowly increase during 2025, but the near-term outlook is weak. We expect some cooling in the US, but steady economic growth to continue despite fiscal and trade policy uncertainties. China continues to struggle with the heavy […]

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Last policy decisions of 2024 to shape market mood RBA, BoC, SNB and ECB are on the agenda US CPI report to be crucial too as Fed undecided RBA to hold rates, but will it turn less hawkish? The Reserve Bank of Australia will kick off the central bank bonanza next week, announcing its decision […]

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Weak household income is being masked by an expansion in non-market care economy. The implications for productivity are often misunderstood, meaning the end of that transition could come as a shock to some. Australian households have been hit by the largest real income shock since the Great Depression. And, although tax cuts and declining inflation […]

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