Markets A looming US government shutdown starting as soon as tonight is capturing market and media attention. Policymakers had agreed on a bipartisan deal to fund spending through March 24. Enter Trump and Musk. Both urged Republicans to kill the deal, a.o. because it didn’t raise the debt ceiling. Trump otherwise has to address the […]

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Sterling remains resilient, as supported by UK employment data indicating that wages remain robust. This development aligns with improved conditions in the UK’s services sector, as seen in yesterday’s PMI release, and suggests that underlying price pressures have not diminished despite growing pessimism tied to the Autumn Budget’s uncertainty. Markets maintain near-zero expectations for a […]

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Dollar ended as the strongest performer last week, boosted by a surge in U.S. Treasury yields following persistent inflation data. Despite expectations of another 25bps rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, stubborn price pressures are likely to slow the pace of policy easing next year. Adding to the caution, inflation uncertainties under the incoming […]

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Summary United States: Sticky Inflation, Sticky Wicket for the Fed Price data this week showed that inflation remains stubbornly above the FOMC’s target. Overall inflation has trended sideways in recent months, and while we do not expect this week’s data to prevent the Fed from cutting another 25 bps next week, it will likely contribute […]

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This week has been rich in terms of interest rate cuts from major central banks. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) didn’t cut its rates but gave an unexpectedly dovish statement, citing that the RBA officials are turning more confident that inflation is on path toward their policy goal. The Bank of Canada (BoC) delivered […]

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In focus today In the euro area, we receive data on industrial production from October, which will give the first hard data point for production in Q4. Industrial production has been on a negative trend for two years without any sign of stabilisation. Statistics Sweden publishes the latest labour force surveys outcome at 8:00 CET. […]

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Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its Deposit Rate by 25 bps to 3.00% at today’s monetary policy announcement, and the accompanying statement was noticeably dovish in tone. In particular, the ECB’s medium-term forecasts for underlying inflation were slightly below the 2% target, and the central bank removed its pledge to keep policy rates […]

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The Swiss franc is down on Thursday following the Swiss National Bank rate announcement. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8880, up 0.43% 80on the day at the time of writing. Swiss National Bank chops by 50 basis points Today’s Swiss National Bank meeting was live, with the market uncertain as whether […]

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Markets The ECB as expected lowered the policy rates by 25 bps to 3% (deposit). The ECB will no longer reinvest some of the maturing PEPP bonds, allowing for a natural roll-off of the pandemic bond portfolio in fashion identical to APP. The central bank in its statement said disinflation is well on track. CPI […]

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European majors are broadly under pressure today, with Swiss Franc leading losses. SNB’s unexpected 50bps rate cut caught markets off guard, and its significantly downgraded inflation projections suggest more easing is on the table for 2025. Meanwhile, Euro managed to hold steady after ECB’s widely anticipated 25bps cut. ECB demonstrated clear confidence in its inflation […]

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SNB took a decisive step by lowering its policy rate by 50 basis points to 0.50%. In its accompanying statement, the central bank highlighted that underlying inflationary pressures have “decreased again” this quarter, warranting the larger-than-expected rate cut. SNB reiterated its commitment to “monitor the situation closely” and stated that it would “adjust its monetary […]

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Australian Dollar staged an impressive rebound today, driven by robust employment data that surprised markets and cast doubt on the likelihood of a February rate cut by RBA. The stronger-than-expected labor market performance challenges the dovish sentiment established earlier in the week when RBA softened its inflation vigilance stance. In the aftermath of RBA meeting, […]

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In focus today In the euro area, we expect the ECB to deliver a 25bp rate cut. Although that is the consensus, markets price in around a 15% probability of a 50bp cut this morning according to Reuters. Rather than focusing on the size of the rate cut, we should focus on where the policy […]

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Today’s focus is firmly on the monetary policy decisions from SNB and ECB, with markets eager to gauge not just the magnitude of the expected rate cuts but also the tone of their forward guidance. Both central banks are expected to ease, but the precise depth of the cuts and their outlook on future policy […]

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The Swiss franc is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8845, up 0.19% on the day. Swiss National Bank cut looms, but how much? ‘Tis the season of central bank decisions, with four major central banks making rate announcements this week. The Swiss central bank meets on Thursday and […]

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Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell over the weekend, Korean lawmakers prepare another impeachment attempt against their President who narrowly avoided removal after briefly imposing martial law last week, and France remains without a new presidential nominee. As such, the US Dollar is stronger on safety demand and crude Oil is better bid on renewed political uncertainty […]

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Dollar and Yen saw modest recoveries in Asian session, driven by the cautious tone in financial markets as traders positioned themselves ahead of a crucial week for economic data and central bank announcements. Risk sentiment was subdued, with equities weakening on concerns over weaker inflation data from China. Adding to the caution, Fitch Ratings downgraded […]

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Last policy decisions of 2024 to shape market mood RBA, BoC, SNB and ECB are on the agenda US CPI report to be crucial too as Fed undecided RBA to hold rates, but will it turn less hawkish? The Reserve Bank of Australia will kick off the central bank bonanza next week, announcing its decision […]

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In focus today The no-confidence vote against French PM Michel Barnier is set to take center stage and is scheduled this afternoon at 16:00 CET. As Marine Le Pen’s party announced they would support the vote of no confidence, the government will most likely collapse this evening. President Macron will have to take on the […]

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The Swiss Franc faces challenges as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is now expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points after recent inflation data showed continued weakness. In November, Swiss inflation remained flat at -0.1% month-on-month, the same as in October, while the annual rate rose slightly to 0.7%, still below expectations of […]

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