The OCR looks set to end 2025 at 3.25% – lower than previously thought. We continue to see a 50bp cut in February but now think it will be followed up with 25bp cuts in April and May 2025. GDP printed sharply lower in Q2 and Q3 2024 – falling a cumulative 2.1%. The RBNZ […]

The post RBNZ OCR Change of Call: Weak GDP Implies a Lower Trough in the OCR appeared first on Action Forex.

Commodity currencies came under pressure towards the end of 2024 Bets of a Fed pause at the turn of the year turbo-charge the dollar Tariff fears and frustration about China’s policies also main drivers Monetary policy could prove decisive in the battle among them Aussie, kiwi, loonie surrender to stronger US dollar As 2024 approaches […]

The post Year Ahead – Will Wounded Commodity Currencies Heal in 2025? appeared first on Action Forex.

The forex markets are generally staying in consolidation mode today with US on thanksgiving holiday. , and even Yen’s rally is losing some momentum. Nevertheless, the Japanese currency might find some renewed life with the Tokyo CPI data in the upcoming Asian session. BoJ Governing Kazuo Ueda has recently kept the option for a rate […]

The post Forex Consolidates; Yen Awaits Tokyo CPI, Ethereum Eyes 3700 Resistance appeared first on Action Forex.

The forex market has turned subdued as the US Thanksgiving holiday curbs activity, but overall trends have held steady. Yen continues to outperform, supported by the ongoing decline in US and European benchmark yields, maintaining its position as the strongest currency this week so far . Euro is the second strongest, showing signs of gaining […]

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Assistant Governor Karen Silk indicated that RBNZ is likely to slow the pace of monetary easing and incorporate pauses into its rate cycle after February. “There could be pauses built in, but it is definitely a slower track after February,” she noted in an interview with Bloomberg. This aligns with the bank’s updated projections released […]

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Businesses remain very upbeat about the year ahead. There are also some signs that current conditions are gradually improving. Key results (November 2024) Business confidence: 64.9 (Prev: 65.7) Expectations for own trading activity: 48.0 (Prev: 45.9) Activity vs same month one year ago: -9.7 (Prev: -10.5) Inflation expectations: 2.53% (Prev: 2.83%) Pricing intentions: 42.2 (Prev: […]

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Summary United States: Data Came in Like a Butterball Anyone who has ever gobbled until they wobbled can tell you it can be challenging to digest too much at one time. In the financial world, you know it’s Thanksgiving when you get a full slate of economic data stuffed into one day. Nobody is relegated […]

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%, bringing the total number of cuts in this cycle to 125. The move was in line with average market forecasts, although it represents a higher rate of normalisation than the G10 club of major developed market currencies. […]

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Yen is asserting dominance in today’s markets, benefiting from notable decline in US and European benchmark treasury yields. US 10-year yield, in particular, is seeing a renewed drop, which is gaining momentum alongside the weakening USD/JPY. This raises the risks that both could be reversing their rallies that began in mid-September. However, with reduced liquidity […]

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The New Zealand dollar has ended a five-day losing streak on Wednesday. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5887, up 0.9% on the day. RBNZ chops rates by 50 basis points The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered its cash rate by 50 basis points today in a widely-expected decision. This brings the […]

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Markets US President-elect Trump announcing he will raise tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico by 25% and the levy on China by 10% in the end only had a limited impact on markets. Early rises in yields and the dollar were largely reversed. The US yield curve closed with the 2-y 1.2 bps lower […]

The post Picture for EUR/USD Looks Fragile, With Return to 1.0335 Still Very Well Possible appeared first on Action Forex.

Even though Donald Trump’s tariff threats on China, Mexico and Canada didn’t concern Europe, the feeling in Europe was far from being comfortable yesterday. The word tariff gives cold chills especially to the European carmakers that already found themselves in crossfire with China. As such, Stellantis lost more than 5% yesterday while Volkswagen tanked another […]

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In focus today From the US, October PCE data is due for release. PCE inflation is expected to remain close to past month’s pace in both headline and core terms, in line with the CPI data released earlier. October durable goods orders and revised Q3 GDP data will be released at the same time. In […]

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Kiwi rebounded broadly during Asian session, supported by a less dovish-than-expected rate cut from RBNZ. While the 50bps reduction to 4.25% had been widely anticipated, RBNZ’s updated forecasts, which suggest a slower pace of easing in 2025, surprised markets. The central bank projects the OCR to reach 3.50% by the end of next year, a […]

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The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.25% at its final policy meeting for this year. The RBNZ’s OCR forecast profile was revised down as expected and now shows the OCR at 3.55% at the end of 2025. The Governor indicated the forward track was consistent with a 50bp cut at the February MPS […]

The post Review of RBNZ: Another 50bp in February More Likely Than Not appeared first on Action Forex.

AUD/NZD plunged in the Asian session, driven by contrasting developments in Australia and New Zealand. However, it is too early to declare a bearish trend reversal for the cross, with near-term sideways consolidation likely. In Australia, RBA received some relief as headline inflation in October did not reaccelerate as feared. While the trimmed mean CPI […]

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RBNZ delivered a widely expected 50bps cut to its Official Cash Rate, bringing it down to 4.25%. The central bank maintained easing bias, stating that if economic conditions align with projections, “the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.” Governor Adrian Orr did not rule out another large cut […]

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Media release The Monetary Policy Committee today agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points to 4.25 percent. Annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the Monetary Policy Committee’s 1 to 3 percent target band. Inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation […]

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The New Zealand dollar is in positive territory on Tuesday, after a four-day losing streak. In the European session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.5850, up 0.09% on the day. Earlier, the New Zealand dollar fell as low as 0.5797, its lowest level since Nov. 1. RBNZ expected to slash rates by 50 basis points The […]

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Dollar is losing some ground as markets enter into US session, as the initial support from US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff announcement dissipated. Although the greenback softened broadly, it is still holding onto gains against Loonie and Aussie, with traders as Trump’s tariffs are targeting Canada, China, alongside Mexico. Market focus now turns to FOMC […]

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