The tradition of central banks hosting meetings just before Christmas continued this year with policy decisions in the US, Japan, UK, Norway, and Sweden. The largest present came from the US Federal Reserve in the shape of a significant hawkish surprise. Fed cut the policy rate target by 25bp to 4.25-4.50% as expected, but Powell delivered […]

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In focus today In the euro area, we get data on consumer confidence for December. Consumer confidence has been on a rising trend the past two years but in November it unexpectedly declined. It will be very import for the growth outlook to see if the decline was just a blip or it continued in […]

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At today’s monetary policy meeting the BoE kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.75%, which was widely expected. The BoE delivered a dovish vote split but continues to emphasise a gradual approach to reducing the restrictiveness of monetary policy. We think this supports our base case of the next cut coming in February and a […]

The post Bank of England Review – BoE to Lag Peers in 2025; We Stay Positive GBP appeared first on Action Forex.

In focus today A packed European central bank day kicks off with the Riksbank decision at 9:30 CET. We expect a 25bp cut to 2.50% and that the central bank will maintain a message of more cuts at the beginning of 2025. Following the November decision to cut by 50bp to 2.75%, the communication has […]

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In focus today Focus today will be on tonight’s FOMC meeting. We expect a 25bp cut, which is also fully discounted by markets. Apart from the rate decision, market attention will be on the updated rate projections, and especially on the FOMC’s latest view on the terminal rate level. We think Chair Powell will aim […]

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In focus today In the afternoon, US November retail sales and industrial production are due for release. Leading soft indicators gave very conflicting signals in November, so the Fed will closely follow hard data releases for stronger conviction on the direction of the economy. In Germany, we receive two growth and sentiment indicators from Ifo […]

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We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.75% on Thursday 19 December in line with consensus and market pricing. Data has broadly been in line with the BoE’s expectations, warranting a continued signalling of only a gradual approach to monetary policy easing. We expect the reaction in EUR/GBP […]

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In focus today Today all eyes are on the euro area December flash PMIs as the very large decline in November caused significant market moves. There was nothing positive in the November report where the services PMI fell below 50 to 49.5 for the first time since January, and the manufacturing PMI remained stuck at […]

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We expect the Fed to cut the policy rate target by 25bp in the December meeting. The Fed could also cut the ON RRP facility rate by an additional 5bp, but we do not expect this to have a significant impact on the policy stance (see p. 2). Markets have fully priced in next week’s […]

The post Fed Preview: Gauging for Neutral appeared first on Action Forex.

As economic data continues to confirm that the inflation problem is more or less over, there is no longer a need for central banks to maintain restrictive levels of interest rates. Hence, this has been a week of rate cuts, and we expect next week to be the same – with some important nuances and […]

The post Weekly Focus – The Season for Rate Cuts appeared first on Action Forex.

In focus today In the euro area, we receive data on industrial production from October, which will give the first hard data point for production in Q4. Industrial production has been on a negative trend for two years without any sign of stabilisation. Statistics Sweden publishes the latest labour force surveys outcome at 8:00 CET. […]

The post ECB Lowered Interest Rates by 25bp as Widely Expected appeared first on Action Forex.

The ECB decided to cut its three policy rates by 25bp, in line with market expectations. The most important decision taken today, though, was to remove the pledge to keep monetary policy restrictive. The ECB now simply guides that it will use the three-tiered reaction function inputs as key metrics (inflation outlook, underlying inflation and […]

The post ECB Review: A Dovish 25’er appeared first on Action Forex.

In focus today In the euro area, we expect the ECB to deliver a 25bp rate cut. Although that is the consensus, markets price in around a 15% probability of a 50bp cut this morning according to Reuters. Rather than focusing on the size of the rate cut, we should focus on where the policy […]

The post We Expect 25bp Rate Cut from ECB Today appeared first on Action Forex.

In focus today The most important data release of the day will be the US November CPI. We think inflation remained steady in headline terms (forecast: 0.2% m/m SA and 2.6% y/y vs. Oct: 0.2% m/m SA and 2.6% y/y). Core inflation likely slowed down slightly from the previous month (forecast: 0.2% m/m SA and […]

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In focus today In Norway, we expect core inflation to remain unchanged at 2.7% y/y in November, a tad lower than consensus at 2.8%. If we are proven right, this will once again be below Norges Bank’s forecast from the latest MPR at 3.0%, and in isolation contribute to a downward revision of the rate […]

The post Scandi Releases and China in Focus Overnight appeared first on Action Forex.

In focus today In the euro area, the Sentix indicator will give us the first indication of the European investor confidence in December. Overnight, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will have a monetary policy meeting. We expect an unchanged rate decision, which is the clear base case by consensus as well. Markets price in […]

The post An Eventful Week Ahead appeared first on Action Forex.

Next week, the ECB is set to cut rates for the fourth time this year. Unlike the previous three cuts, the outcome of next week’s rate decision is not given as 1) the restrictive policy stance, 2) the deteriorating growth outlook, and 3) inflation at target has opened discussions of a 50bp cut. While a […]

The post ECB Preview: A Disputed 25bp Rate Cut appeared first on Action Forex.

This week, we published our macroeconomic projections for the global economy and the Nordics. In the euro area, we expect growth to slowly increase during 2025, but the near-term outlook is weak. We expect some cooling in the US, but steady economic growth to continue despite fiscal and trade policy uncertainties. China continues to struggle with the heavy […]

The post Weekly Focus – Cutting Cycle Continues appeared first on Action Forex.

In focus today The main data event will be the US Jobs Report for November. We expect Nonfarm Payrolls growth to recover to 160k (cons: 200k, prior: 12k) after temporary weather-related effects have reversed. We anticipate average hourly earnings growth moderated to +0.2% m/m SA and unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1%. Preliminary results from […]

The post Macron on the Hunt for a New Prime Minister as Barnier Resigns appeared first on Action Forex.

In focus today President Macron is faced with the difficult task of appointing a new prime minister following PM Barnier being outed at yesterdays no-confidence vote. We think it is likely that a new government will not be formed before the new year, with the current government to continue in a caretaker capacity. We anticipate […]

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