Summary United States: That’s a Wrap The outlook for 2025 is riddled with uncertainty, yet data released this week demonstrate a U.S. economy that retains momentum. Ascertaining what level of policy restraint achieves the careful balance of keeping inflation in check and easing stress on interest-rate sensitive sectors will dominate the monetary policy discussion come […]

The post Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: That’s a Wrap appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary As widely expected, the FOMC cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps at today’s meeting. However, one Committee member, who preferred to keep rates on hold, dissented. Wording in the post-meeting statement was changed to signal that further easing may proceed at a slower pace. The median dot for […]

The post FOMC Cuts Rates, but Pace of Easing Ahead Likely Will Slow appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary With China particularly sensitive to changes in U.S. trade and tariff policy, we find value in laying out scenarios for how China’s economy and currency could evolve going forward. In this report, we outline the policy assumptions underpinning our base case for China GDP growth and the renminbi. We also offer views on how […]

The post China Economic & FX Outlook: Scenario Analysis appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary United States: Sticky Inflation, Sticky Wicket for the Fed Price data this week showed that inflation remains stubbornly above the FOMC’s target. Overall inflation has trended sideways in recent months, and while we do not expect this week’s data to prevent the Fed from cutting another 25 bps next week, it will likely contribute […]

The post Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Sticky Inflation, Sticky Wicket for the Fed appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary We expect the FOMC will reduce the federal funds rate by 25 bps at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on December 18 while simultaneously emphasizing that future rate cuts will be slower-going and dependent on incoming data. Data over the inter-meeting period suggest ongoing resilience within the U.S. economy. The labor market cooling […]

The post December Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period: Slower Pace of Easing on the Horizon appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its Deposit Rate by 25 bps to 3.00% at today’s monetary policy announcement, and the accompanying statement was noticeably dovish in tone. In particular, the ECB’s medium-term forecasts for underlying inflation were slightly below the 2% target, and the central bank removed its pledge to keep policy rates […]

The post European Central Bank Maintains Steady Easing, Swiss National Bank Accelerates appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary United States: The Song Remains the Same Incoming economic data continue to illuminate pockets of stress in the U.S. economy. The unwinding of strikes and hurricane effects lifted nonfarm payrolls by 227K in November; however, job gains remain highly concentrated by industry. Openings also continue to trend lower through the month volatility. Meanwhile, tariff-related […]

The post Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: The Song Remains the Same appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary Stalling progress on the inflation fight should be evident in the November Consumer Price Index. We expect headline CPI to advance 0.25% over the month and 2.7% over the past year. The core index should similarly rise around 0.25%, which would keep the 12-month change stuck in the narrow range of 3.2%-3.3% for a […]

The post November CPI Preview: Barely Budging appeared first on Action Forex.

A New Horizon: The Economic Outlook in a New Leadership and Policy Era Key Themes With Donald Trump elected as president with unified congressional support, economic policy in the United States is set to change rather dramatically. President Trump campaigned on making radical adjustments to U.S. trade policy, specifically reverting to tariffs as a means […]

The post 2025 International Economic Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary United States: Data Came in Like a Butterball Anyone who has ever gobbled until they wobbled can tell you it can be challenging to digest too much at one time. In the financial world, you know it’s Thanksgiving when you get a full slate of economic data stuffed into one day. Nobody is relegated […]

The post Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: And So It Begins appeared first on Action Forex.

United States: Back-up in Mortgage Rates a Setback for Housing The residential sector was in focus this week. The late summer dip in mortgage rates led to an upside surprise in existing home sales. Recent hurricanes weighed on housing starts in October. An upturn in the NAHB HMI shows builders are not put off by […]

The post Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: How Much Will the Fed Cut Rates? appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary United States: Inflation Redux The descent in inflation remains slow-going. Stubborn services prices lifted the Consumer Price Index 2.6% annually in October, the first acceleration in this measure since Q1. Sticky inflation does not appear to be fazing consumers, who are heading into the holiday season with solid spending momentum. However, slower progress on […]

The post Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Inflation Redux appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary United States: Election Results Don’t Clarify the Outlook Even as the 2024 presidential election has come and gone, there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty regarding the trajectory of the economy and Fed policy. Tariffs and a tax policy look to be on the docket in the next administration, which could come with […]

The post Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Higher Rates Likely Under Trump Administration appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary As widely expected, the FOMC cut rates by 25 bps at today’s policy meeting. The decision was unanimous. The Committee noted that progress has been made in returning inflation to its target of 2% and that the risks of achieving its goals of price stability and full employment are roughly balanced. Despite 75 bps […]

The post Fed Continues To Dial Back Policy Restraint via 25 bps Rate Cut appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary The October Consumer Price Index will likely show that progress in wringing out the last bit of inflation remains frustratingly slow. We look for headline CPI to have advanced 0.2% in October, which would bump up the 12-month change in consumer prices to 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, prices are likely to have increased […]

The post October CPI Preview: Disinflation Is Getting Harder appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary In this report, we examine some thematic and global takeaways from the U.S. election. We view a second Trump administration—and more specifically his proposed tariff policies—as a catalyst for further deglobalization and global economic fragmentation. Tariffs could also act as an inflection point for China to approach stimulus efforts differently, while the nature of […]

The post Global Takeaways of the U.S. Election appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary Election Day is in the rearview mirror. Although the outcome of every race has not yet been determined, the outlook for control of Congress and the White House has become considerably clearer. Donald Trump has been elected President of the United States. Republicans have picked up a majority of at least a few seats […]

The post The 2024 U.S. Elections: Economic Implications appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary United States: It’s Halloween. Everyone’s Entitled to One Good Scare. Nonfarm payrolls rose a much weaker-than-expected 12K in October. Worker strikes and hurricanes played a major role in the headline miss. The unemployment rate, which is derived from the household survey and counts those not working due to a strike or severe weather as […]

The post Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: What Goes Up, Must Come Down appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary The FOMC started its nascent easing cycle with a bang, opting to reduce the fed funds target range by 50 bps to 4.75%-5.00% at its last meeting on September 18. But further policy easing seems set to proceed at a slower pace. We look for the FOMC to reduce the fed funds rate by […]

The post November Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary United States: Move On Up The housing sector was in focus this week. During September, existing homes sales remained in a slump and declined to a fresh cycle low, while new home sales bucked the trend and rose solidly. Although the move up in mortgage rates will pose some near-term challenges for housing, growth […]

The post Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary: Beige Flags in the Beige Book appeared first on Action Forex.