US initial jobless claims fell -1k to 219k in the week ending December 21, slightly higher than expectation of 218k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 227k. Continuing claims rose 46k to 1910k in the week ending December 14, highest since November 3, 2021. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3k […]

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US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to 104.7 in December, falling short of expectations for 113.2 and down from 112.8 in November. Present Situation Index slipped by -1.2 points to 140.2. The more forward-looking Expectations Index plunged -12.6 points to 81.1, nearing the critical 80 threshold that often signals recession risks. Dana M. Peterson, Chief […]

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US durable goods orders dropped -1.1% mom in November to USD 285.1B, significantly missing market expectations of a -0.3% mom decline. This also marks the third decline in the last four months. Excluding transportation, orders edged down -0.1% mom to USD 189.6B, while orders excluding defense fell -0.3% mom to USD 267.4B. The transportation equipment […]

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Canada’s GDP rose 0.3% mom in October, surpassing expectations of 0.2% mom, with 12 out of 20 sectors contributing to the growth. This marked a rebound for the goods-producing industries, which expanded by 0.9% mom after four months of contraction, driven primarily by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction. The services-producing industries edged up […]

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Natural gas prices climbed to a nearly two-year high, driven by immediate weather-related demand and a bullish long-term outlook for global energy consumption. In the short term, forecasts for below-average temperatures across the northern hemisphere—including North America, Europe, China, and Japan—are expected to significantly increase daily heating demand as these regions, which account for more […]

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In an interview with the Financial Times, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed optimism about nearing the inflation target. She remarked that ECB is “very close” to declaring that inflation has been “sustainably” brought back to its 2% medium-term target. The latest inflation reading of 2.2% reflects the success of ECB’s restrictive monetary policy. However, she […]

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US headline PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in November, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) also rose 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Prices for goods increased less than 0.1% mom and prices for services increased 0.2% mom. Food prices increased 0.2% mom and energy prices […]

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Canada’s retail sales rose 0.6% mom to CAD 67.6B in October, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Sales were up in five of nine subsectors and were led by increases at motor vehicle and parts dealers. Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers—were up 0.2% mom. In volume terms, […]

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UK retail sales volumes rose by 0.2% mom in November, falling short of expectations for a 0.4% increase. This modest gain partly recovered the -0.7% mom decline recorded in October. Growth in supermarkets and non-food stores provided support, but this was partially offset by weaker performance from clothing retailers. On an annual basis, sales volumes […]

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Japan’s core CPI (excluding food) rose to 2.7% yoy in November, marking the first reacceleration in three months and exceeding market expectations of 2.6% yoy. Core inflation has remained above the BoJ’s 2% target since April 2022, highlighting persistent price pressures. This increase was attributed to reduced government subsidies for utility bills and a sharp […]

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New Zealand’s trade data for November showed a significant improvement, with goods exports rising 9.1% yoy to NZD 6.5B, while goods imports increased by a more modest 3.9% yoy to NZD 6.9B. The resulting trade deficit of NZD -437m was much smaller than the expected NZD -1951m. Exports saw notable gains across key markets. Shipments […]

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US initial jobless claims fell -22k to 220k in the week ending December 14, below expectation of 240k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 224k. Continuing claims fell -5k to 1874k in the week ending December 7. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -6k to 1880k. Full US jobless claims release […]

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BoE held its Bank Rate steady at 4.75%, in line with expectations, but the vote leaned more dovish than before. Three MPC members—Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden, and Alan Taylor—voted for a rate cut. BoE reaffirmed that a “gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate” and emphasized the need to maintain restrictive policy “for […]

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Germany’s GfK Consumer Sentiment Index for January rose to -21.3, improving from December’s -23.1. December’s subindices reflected mixed dynamics: economic expectations moved into positive territory at 0.3, up from -3.6, and income expectations increased to 1.4 from -3.5. Willingness to buy also ticked higher to -5.4 from -6.0, while willingness to save fell sharply to […]

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BoJ kept its uncollateralized overnight call rate unchanged at 0.25%, as widely anticipated, with an 8-1 vote in favor. Naoki Tamura dissented, advocating for a rate increase to 0.50%. Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking at the post-meeting press conference, reiterated that rate hikes would proceed cautiously. He noted, “If the economy and prices move in line […]

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New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index fell to 62.3 in December, down from 64.9. However, some subindices showed encouraging signs of recovery. The own activity outlook improved to 50.3 from 48.0, while profit expectations rose significantly to 31.1 from 26.5. Investment intentions also jumped to 21.5 from 18.0, signaling increased business willingness to allocate resources […]

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New Zealand’s economy contracted by -1.0% qoq in Q3, significantly worse than market expectations of -0.2%. The previous quarter’s GDP figure was also revised down sharply, from -0.2% to -1.1%, painting a grimmer picture of the country’s economic performance. The decline was broad-based, with activity falling in 11 out of 16 industries, including significant contractions […]

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Dollar jumps across the board after Fed’s hawkish rate cut, with economic projections giving a strong nod to market expectations of slower policy easing, and a higher terminal rate. EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0629 resumed by breaking through 1.0452. Decline from 1.1213 might also be resuming and break of 1.0330 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0936 […]

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Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 4.25–4.50%, as widely expected. However, the decision was not unanimous, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting, favoring a pause in rate cuts. The updated median economic projections reflect a more cautious approach to easing. Fed now expects rates to fall to 3.9% by the […]

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ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane highlighted the importance of maintaining “agility” in monetary policy decisions during a speech today. Lane emphasized that in the current environment of elevated uncertainty, ECB’s “prudent” approach will be guided by a meeting-by-meeting strategy without pre-committing to any specific rate path. Lane outlined that the pace of monetary easing will […]

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