The Australian dollar has posted slight losses on Tuesday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6247, down 0.18% at the time of writing. RBA minutes hint at rate cut The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes from the December meeting were significant although they didn’t have much impact on the Australian dollar. The minutes […]

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It’s never too late to believe in Santa. Investors on Monday were shrugging off the bad news of past week – especially the one that suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut its rates only two times in 2025 due to a too resilient US economy. Yesterday’s data that showed that the US durable […]

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The Bottom Line: Today’s GDP report shows Canadian economic growth accelerated in October from September; however, the early estimate points to a contraction (-0.1%) in November, consistent with preliminary reports showing softer wholesale sales, declining manufacturing volumes, and flat retail sales. The Bank of Canada’s December messaging pointed to a more gradual approach on rate […]

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Canadian economic growth jumped 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) in October, ahead of Statistics Canada’s advanced guidance and consensus expectations. Early estimates from Statistics Canada point to a slight pullback in November GDP (-0.1% m/m). October’s reading was broad-based, with output expanding in 12 of 20 industries. The goods sector grew by a hefty 0.8% m/m, while […]

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Stock market sentiment is moving out of the extreme fear zone it plunged into last week, and the dollar has paused its strengthening. Friday’s CPI report came in slightly weaker than average forecasts, reducing the fear of future Fed monetary policy. Traders probably assumed that the Fed had better information about recent inflationary trends, which […]

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The Canadian dollar posted its fourth straight losing week, declining about 1%. In Monday’s European session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.4397, up 0.16% at the time of writing. Canada’s GDP expected to remain at 0.1% The market is keeping expectations low for today’s GDP report, with a forecast of 0.1% m/m for October after a […]

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Market Picture The crypto market retreated last week and is in no hurry to recover, remaining at $3.31 trillion, roughly where it was 30 days ago. The sharp dip below $3.2 trillion was also quickly bought back, but a full-blown rebound is yet to be seen. Markets continue to digest the Fed’s tougher tone, reinforced […]

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Last week was chaotic. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) hawkish 25bp cut, the hint from the dot plot that there would be only two rate cuts next year instead of four – because the US economy is too strong to continue the cuts as previously predicted – and the US debt limit shenanigans even before Trump […]

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The Federal Reserve’s policy change and economic projections have significantly impacted markets, leading to a rise in US yields. The US PCE data released on Friday rose less than expected, alleviating some selling pressure on US equities. The Bank of Japan held rates steady, defying expectations of a rate cut, while the risk of a […]

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Canadian Highlights The Fall Economic Statement (FES) was delivered amid a chaotic week for the federal government. Larger deficits and modest stimulus were features, although the FES is unlikely to change the Bank of Canada’s thinking on policy. Data on the real economy was mixed, with gains in home sales and starts in November, but […]

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Summary United States: That’s a Wrap The outlook for 2025 is riddled with uncertainty, yet data released this week demonstrate a U.S. economy that retains momentum. Ascertaining what level of policy restraint achieves the careful balance of keeping inflation in check and easing stress on interest-rate sensitive sectors will dominate the monetary policy discussion come […]

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The final major data point from Statistics Canada in 2024 will be Monday’s gross domestic product release for October, which will be the last GDP print before the Bank of Canada’s Jan. 29 meeting. We look for a 0.2% increase that would be the strongest monthly gain since April, and firmer than the 0.1% advance […]

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The tradition of central banks hosting meetings just before Christmas continued this year with policy decisions in the US, Japan, UK, Norway, and Sweden. The largest present came from the US Federal Reserve in the shape of a significant hawkish surprise. Fed cut the policy rate target by 25bp to 4.25-4.50% as expected, but Powell delivered […]

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The U.S. dollar ends the year on a strong note, hitting two-year highs at 108.45. The Fed expects a 50-point rate cut for the full year 2025 versus 4 cuts one quarter earlier, citing higher inflation forecasts and a stubbornly strong labour market. This fundamental change has given a new impetus to the dollar’s rise […]

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Market Picture The crypto market continues to retreat, having lost 4.4% to $3.36 trillion in the last 24 hours and already over 11% from the all-time peak of $3.79 trillion set on Tuesday. While the sell-off in stock markets has slowed, cryptocurrencies are maintaining or even picking up the pace of the decline. This return […]

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Markets A looming US government shutdown starting as soon as tonight is capturing market and media attention. Policymakers had agreed on a bipartisan deal to fund spending through March 24. Enter Trump and Musk. Both urged Republicans to kill the deal, a.o. because it didn’t raise the debt ceiling. Trump otherwise has to address the […]

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Personal income grew 0.3% month-on-month (m/m) in November, a deceleration relative to October’s outsized 0.7% gain. Personal income is 5.3% higher than 12 months ago, well above the pace of inflation. Accounting for inflation and taxes, real personal disposable income grew 0.2% m/m, slower than the 0.5% pace in the prior month. Spending remained robust, […]

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Retail sales rose by a solid 0.6% month-over-month (m/m) in October, slightly below Statistics Canada’s advance estimate of 0.7% m/m. In real terms, however, sales were unchanged. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers accelerated by 2.0% m/m, reversing September’s losses. Ex-autos, sales were up 0.1% m/m, falling short of the consensus expectation of 0.4% […]

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The British pound has steadied on Friday, after sliding 1.6% in the past two days. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2510, down 0.10% on the day at the time of writing. Retail sales point to weak Christmas spending UK retail sales posted a small gain of 0.2% m/m in November. This was […]

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Markets Front end US yields returned a few bps of the sharp Fed-induced gains yesterday but the long end extended its march higher. The 10-30-yr bucket added between 4.8 and 5.9 bps. Economic data, while second tier, again in most cases underscored the country’s economic resilience. European swap rates gapped higher in a first response […]

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