At today’s monetary policy meeting the BoE kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.75%, which was widely expected. The BoE delivered a dovish vote split but continues to emphasise a gradual approach to reducing the restrictiveness of monetary policy. We think this supports our base case of the next cut coming in February and a […]

The post Bank of England Review – BoE to Lag Peers in 2025; We Stay Positive GBP appeared first on Action Forex.

The OCR looks set to end 2025 at 3.25% – lower than previously thought. We continue to see a 50bp cut in February but now think it will be followed up with 25bp cuts in April and May 2025. GDP printed sharply lower in Q2 and Q3 2024 – falling a cumulative 2.1%. The RBNZ […]

The post RBNZ OCR Change of Call: Weak GDP Implies a Lower Trough in the OCR appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary As widely expected, the FOMC cut the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 bps at today’s meeting. However, one Committee member, who preferred to keep rates on hold, dissented. Wording in the post-meeting statement was changed to signal that further easing may proceed at a slower pace. The median dot for […]

The post FOMC Cuts Rates, but Pace of Easing Ahead Likely Will Slow appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary With China particularly sensitive to changes in U.S. trade and tariff policy, we find value in laying out scenarios for how China’s economy and currency could evolve going forward. In this report, we outline the policy assumptions underpinning our base case for China GDP growth and the renminbi. We also offer views on how […]

The post China Economic & FX Outlook: Scenario Analysis appeared first on Action Forex.

Australia’s economic rollercoaster; Aussie in new negative paths New Zealand’s challenging year; Kiwi may dive further Canada’s economic rebound; Loonie unlocks new lows AUDUSD: Bearish sentiment starts in 2024 Australia’s economy demonstrated a mixed performance this year. The RBA maintained the cash rate at 4.35% to combat persistent underlying inflation, which remained around 3.5%. Economic growth was […]

The post Yearly Technical Outlook 2025 – AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD appeared first on Action Forex.

The year 2024 has been a transformative period in the global financial markets, characterised by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Inflation battles, monetary policy shifts, economic uncertainties, and surprising bouts of optimism dominated the landscape. These forces created a volatile yet dynamic environment where some markets flourished while others struggled under significant pressure. From […]

The post Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025 appeared first on Action Forex.

EURUSD: No light at the end of the tunnel  EURUSD is down by 4.78% year-to-date and has been stuck in a range since the ECB signaled the end of its rate hike cycle more than a year ago. Despite a boost from a dovish Fed, the euro has struggled due to the ECB’s rate cut policy, […]

The post Yearly Technical Outlook 2025 – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY appeared first on Action Forex.

The ECB decided to cut its three policy rates by 25bp, in line with market expectations. The most important decision taken today, though, was to remove the pledge to keep monetary policy restrictive. The ECB now simply guides that it will use the three-tiered reaction function inputs as key metrics (inflation outlook, underlying inflation and […]

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Summary We expect the FOMC will reduce the federal funds rate by 25 bps at the conclusion of its upcoming meeting on December 18 while simultaneously emphasizing that future rate cuts will be slower-going and dependent on incoming data. Data over the inter-meeting period suggest ongoing resilience within the U.S. economy. The labor market cooling […]

The post December Flashlight for the FOMC Blackout Period: Slower Pace of Easing on the Horizon appeared first on Action Forex.

Gold has added almost 30% during 2024 Fed policy could continue to impact the precious metal in 2025 Geopolitical tensions tend to drive the safe haven higher 2025 could be another bright year for gold A spectacular year for the precious metal It’s been  a phenomenal year for gold, with prices rising by almost 30% and hitting numerous new all-time highs. Geopolitical uncertainties and the US presidential elections drove prices to a peak […]

The post Year Ahead – Gold’s Golden Year: Will It Shine Even Brighter in 2025? appeared first on Action Forex.

Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its Deposit Rate by 25 bps to 3.00% at today’s monetary policy announcement, and the accompanying statement was noticeably dovish in tone. In particular, the ECB’s medium-term forecasts for underlying inflation were slightly below the 2% target, and the central bank removed its pledge to keep policy rates […]

The post European Central Bank Maintains Steady Easing, Swiss National Bank Accelerates appeared first on Action Forex.

Commodity currencies came under pressure towards the end of 2024 Bets of a Fed pause at the turn of the year turbo-charge the dollar Tariff fears and frustration about China’s policies also main drivers Monetary policy could prove decisive in the battle among them Aussie, kiwi, loonie surrender to stronger US dollar As 2024 approaches […]

The post Year Ahead – Will Wounded Commodity Currencies Heal in 2025? appeared first on Action Forex.

A New Horizon: The Economic Outlook in a New Leadership and Policy Era Key Themes With Donald Trump elected as president with unified congressional support, economic policy in the United States is set to change rather dramatically. President Trump campaigned on making radical adjustments to U.S. trade policy, specifically reverting to tariffs as a means […]

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Trump’s agenda and Fed to set the tone for 2025 Eurozone politics, a dovish ECB and weak growth in the spotlight The UK is in better shape, but the budget could prove a major headwind Pound strength may persist in early 2025, the euro might find its moment later on If the stars align, 2025 […]

The post Year Ahead – Euro Might Finally Outperform the Pound in 2025 appeared first on Action Forex.

US dollar set for bullish start to new year as Fed rate cut bets pared Yen bears make a comeback, but will they reign in 2025? Fed and BoJ policy expectations diverge after Trump’s re-election ‘Trump trade’ reinforces dollar bulls The Federal Reserve finally cut interest rates in September, but far from falling, the US […]

The post Year Ahead – What Does 2025 Hold for US Dollar and Japanese Yen? appeared first on Action Forex.

The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.25% at its final policy meeting for this year. The RBNZ’s OCR forecast profile was revised down as expected and now shows the OCR at 3.55% at the end of 2025. The Governor indicated the forward track was consistent with a 50bp cut at the February MPS […]

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We have revised our view of the most likely scenario for the path of the RBA’s cash rate, pushing out the start date of the rate-cutting cycle from February to May, but more front-loaded than previously assumed. We have revised our view of the most likely scenario for the path of the RBA’s cash rate, […]

The post RBA Cash Rate: Later But Faster Cuts Now More Likely appeared first on Action Forex.

Trump’s election invites gold bears into the game Bets of slower rate cuts by the Fed may be the main driver PBoC pauses purchases, but strategy likely not changed Speculation around geopolitics may also be weighing Trump wins but gold loses After hitting a record high of around $2,790 on October 30, gold entered a […]

The post Is Trump’s Election the End of Gold’s Bull Run? appeared first on Action Forex.

We expect the RBNZ will cut the OCR by a further 50bps to 4.25% at its November Monetary Policy Statement meeting. The RBNZ will likely indicate increased confidence that pricing and wage setting behaviour will quickly normalise now that annual CPI inflation is close to 2%. The RBNZ’s projections will likely suggest further OCR cuts […]

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Summary As widely expected, the FOMC cut rates by 25 bps at today’s policy meeting. The decision was unanimous. The Committee noted that progress has been made in returning inflation to its target of 2% and that the risks of achieving its goals of price stability and full employment are roughly balanced. Despite 75 bps […]

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