USD/JPY stayed in the consolidation pattern from 118.65 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Outlook stays bullish with 114.76 intact and further rise is expected. Above 118.65 will extend the whole rise from 98.97 to 125.85 key resistance next. However, sustained break of 114.76 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 55 day EMA (now at 112.80) and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Rejection from 125.05 and below will extend the consolidation with another falling leg before up trend resumption.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 long term bottom to 125.85 medium term top is viewed as an impulsive move. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. But, up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.74; (P) 124.21; (R1) 124.75; More…

USD/JPY’s break of 125.09 resistance confirms resumption of larger up trend from 102.58. Intraday bias is now on the upside. Decisive break of 125.86 long term resistance will pave the way to 130.04 long term projection level next. On the downside, below 123.44 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 121.27 support holds.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) is in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.57; (P) 108.88; (R1) 109.27; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for consolidation above 108.27 temporary low. As long as 110.18 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected. On the downside, break of 108.27 will extend recent fall through 107.31 support to next fibonacci support at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 110.18 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 111.47 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 156.77; (P) 157.07; (R1) 157.58; More….

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, decisive break of 156.36 minor support will confirm short term topping at 157.70, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 153.59 support. Firm break there will target 151.86 and below as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. However, break of 157.70 will extend the rally from 151.86 towards 160.20.

In the bigger picture, a medium term top might be formed at 160.20. But as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds, fall from there is seen as correcting rise from 150.25 only. However, decisive break of 150.87 will argue that larger correction is possibly underway, and target 146.47 support next.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.19; (P) 108.55; (R1) 108.77; More..

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged and intraday bias stays neutral first. With 108.08 minor support intact, consolidation should be relatively brief. On the upside, break of 109.22 will resume recent rally to channel resistance at 110.02 next. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. Break of 108.08 will bring deeper correction. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 106.21 resistance turned support holds.

In the bigger picture, focus is now back on long term channel resistance (now at 110.02). Sustained break there will indicate that the down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed. Further break of 112.22 resistance will confirm this bullish case and target 118.65 next. However, rejection by the channel resistance will keep medium term outlook bearish.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.51; (P) 112.68; (R1) 112.92; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral at this point. And, near term outlook stays bullish as long as 112.02 support holds and further rise is expected. Break of 113.74 will resume the rebound from 110.83 and target 114.73 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications. However, break of 112.02 will likely extend the corrective pattern from 114.73 with another leg through 110.83 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re holding on to the view that correction from 118.65 is completed at 107.31. And medium term rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is going to resume soon. Sustained break of 114.73 should affirm our view and send USD/JPY through 118.65. However, break of 107.31 will dampen this view and extend the medium term fall back to 98.97 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.64; (P) 112.89; (R1) 113.09; More…

USD?JPY’s breach of 113.13 suggests rally resumption. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Current rally from 104.62 should target 61.8% projection of 104.62 to 111.39 from 109.36 at 113.54 first. Break will put focus on 114.73 key resistance for confirming our bullish medium term view. On the downside, break of 112.21 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, current development, with the solid break of medium term channel resistance from 118.65 (2016 high), affirm our view that corrective fall from there has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will now be the preferred case as long as 119.36 support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.34; (P) 112.88; (R1) 113.17; More…

USD/JPY’s strong break of 112.31 minor support argues that a short term top is formed at 113.43, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Also, this suggests that the pair is rejected by medium term channel resistance. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 111.26 first). Sustained break there will bring retest of 107.31. For now, risk will stays on the downside as long as 113.43 resistance holds.

In the bigger picture, rise from 98.97 (2016 low) is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 125.85 (2015 high). It’s unclear whether this this second leg has completed at 118.65 or not. But medium term outlook will be mildly bearish as long as 114.49 resistance holds. And, there is prospect of breaking 98.97 ahead. Meanwhile, break of 114.49 will bring retest of 125.85 high. But even in that case, we don’t expect a break there on first attempt.

USD/JPY stayed in range of 105.10/107.05 last week despite very high volatility. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Further decline is in favor as long as 107.05 resistance holds. Break of 105.10 will bring retest of 104.18 support first. Further break will resume whole decline from 111.71. On the upside, break of 107.05 will revive the case of near term reversal and bring stronger rally.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec. 2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. The down trend could still extend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 106.74; (P) 106.90; (R1) 107.03; More...

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remain neutral and consolidation from 106.57 temporary low might extend. Further decline is expected with 107.64 resistance intact. Break of 106.57 will extend the fall from 109.85 to 105.98 and below. Though, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 101.18 to 111.71 at 105.20 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 107.64 will turn bias back to the upside for 109.85 resistance instead.

In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying in long term falling channel that started back in 118.65 (Dec2016). Hence, there is no clear indication of trend reversal yet. Break of 105.98 support could extend the down trend through 101.18 low. However, sustained break of 112.22 should confirm completion of the down trend and turn outlook bullish for 118.65 and above.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.38; (P) 108.64; (R1) 109.12; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for 109.31 key resistance. Decisive break there will carry larger bullish implications next target will be 100% projection of 104.45 to 108.47 from 106.48 at 110.50. On the downside, below 108.15 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will stay bullish as long as 106.48 support holds.

In the bigger picture,strong support was seen from 104.62 again. Yet, there is not confirmation of medium term reversal. Corrective decline from 118.65 (Dec. 2016) could still extend lower. But in that case, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound. Meanwhile, on the upside, break of 112.40 key resistance will be a strong sign of start of medium term up trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.87; (P) 109.39; (R1) 109.77; More…

USD/JPY’s breach of 109.93 minor resistance suggests that corrective pull back from 110.95 has completed at 108.99. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 110.95 high first. On the downside, break of 108.99 will extend the correction to 108.40 support and possibly below. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 110.95 at 107.75 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the corrective down trend from 118.65 (Dec 2016) has completed at 101.18. Firm break of 112.22 resistance should confirms this bullish case. A medium term up trend could then has started for 100% projection of 101.18 to 111.71 from 102.58 at 113.11 and then 161.8% projection at 119.61. However, rejection by 111.71, followed by sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 107.67), will dampen the bullish view and keep medium term outlook neutral first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.85; (P) 139.29; (R1) 139.81; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidation from 140.90 is extending. Further rally is expected as long as 138.22 minor support holds. On the upside, break of 140.90 will resume larger rise from 127.20 to 142.48 fibonacci level. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, break of 138.22 will confirm short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 136.77).

In the bigger picture, rise from 127.20 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 151.93 high. Stronger rally would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.34. Sustained break there will pave the way back to retest 151.93. On the downside, however, break of 133.73 support will argue that the pattern could have started the third leg through 127.20 low.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 112.37; (P) 112.63; (R1) 112.82; More…

USD/JPY lost some downside momentum with 4 hour MACD crossed above signal line. But with 113.53 minor resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. We’re holding on to the view that consolidation pattern from 111.58 has completed with three waves up to 115.49. And decline from 118.65 is likely resuming. Further fall should be seen through 111.58 to 111.12/13 cluster support. This level represents 61.8% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 111.12 and 38.2% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 111.13. At this point, we’d tentatively expect strong support from 111.12/13 cluster support to contain downside. On the upside, above 113.53 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 115.49 resistance. However, sustained break of 111.12/13 will bring deeper decline to 100% projection of 118.65 to 111.58 from 115.49 at 108.42.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 125.85 high are seen as a corrective pattern. The impulsive structure of the rise from 98.97 suggests that the correction is completed and larger up trend is resuming. Decisive break of 125.85 will confirm and target 61.8% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 98.97 at 130.04 and then 135.20 long term resistance. Nonetheless, sustained trading below 55 week EMA (now at 111.19) will extend the consolidation from 125.85 with another fall through 98.97 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 116.48; (P) 116.92; (R1) 117.73; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current up trend from 102.58 should target 118.65 long term resistance next. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 121.63. On the downside, below 117.44 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidation first. But retreat should be contained by 116.34 resistance turned support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, no change in the view that rise from 102.58 is the third leg of the up trend from 101.18 (2020 low). Such rally should target a test on 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break there will pave the way to 125.85 (2015 high) and raise the chance of long term up trend resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 113.46 support holds.

USD/JPY’s decline from 112.40 resumed last week by dropping through 109.02 support and hit as low as 108.27. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement of 104.69 to 112.40 at 107.63. Sustained break there will pave the way back to 104.62/9 key support zone. On the upside, break of 109.15 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of recovery.

In the bigger picture, decline from 118.65 (Dec 2016) is still in progress, with the pair staying indicate long term falling channel. Break of 104.62 will target 100% projection of 118.65 to 104.62 from 114.54 at 100.51. For now, we’d expect strong support above 98.97 (2016 low) to contain downside to bring rebound.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 130.13; (P) 131.42; (R1) 132.36; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment, and further rally is still mildly in favor. On the upside, above 132.89 will resume the rebound from 127.20 short term bottom to 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64. Nevertheless, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 130.50) will bring retest of 127.20 low.

In the bigger picture, prior of 55 week EMA (now at 131.39) raises the chance of medium term bearish reversal, but that’s not confirmed yet. Strong rebound from current level, followed by sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 151.93 to 127.20 at 136.64 will argue that price actions from 151.93 is merely a corrective pattern. However, rejection by 136.64 will solidify medium term bearishness for 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.39; (P) 108.79; (R1) 109.18; More…

USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidation from 108.27 temporary low. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. As long as 110.18 resistance holds, deeper decline is expected. On the downside, break of 108.27 will extend recent fall through 107.31 support to next fibonacci support at 106.48. Nonetheless, break of 110.18 will be the first sign of near term reversal and will turn bias back to the upside for 111.47 resistance.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the corrective pattern from 118.65 is extending. There is risk of dropping further to 61.8% retracement of 98.97 to 118.65 at 106.48. But this level should provide strong support to contain downside and bring resumption of rise from 98.97. However, sustained break of 106.48 will now likely send USD/JPY through 98.97 to resume the corrective fall from 125.85 (2015 high).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.01; (P) 141.74; (R1) 143.16; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 143.03 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and turn bias back to the upside for rebound towards 147.20. However, decisive break of 139.26 fibonacci level would carry larger bearish implications, and target 61.8% projection of 161.94 to 141.67 from 149.35 at 136.82 next.

In the bigger picture, fall from 161.94 medium term top is seen as correcting whole up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support could be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to contain downside, at least on first attempt. But in any case, risk will stay on the downside as long as 149.35 resistance holds. Sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.61; (P) 151.77; (R1) 152.02; More…

Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral and outlook is unchanged. On the downside, break of 150.80 will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 149.73). On the upside, however, sustained break of 151.93 key resistance will confirm long term up trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, correction from 151.87 (2023) high could have completed at 140.25 already. Rise from 127.20 (2023 low), as part of the long term up trend, is probably ready to resume. Decisive break of 151.93 resistance (2022 high) will confirm this bullish case. Next medium term target will be 61.8% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 155.20. This will remain the favored case as long as 146.47 support holds, in case of another pullback.