Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7732; (P) 0.7750; (R1) 0.7770; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral at this point. With 0.7673 support intact, further rise is still mildly in favor. On the upside, break of 0.7890 will resume the rise from 0.7530 to retest 0.8006 high. However, on the downside, firm break of 0.7673 will suggest that correction from 0.8006 is extending with another falling leg. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7530 support and possibly below.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 1.1079 (2001 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. Rise from 0.5506 could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. But in any case, medium term rally is expected to continue as long as 0.7413 resistance turned support holds.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6375; (P) 0.6409; (R1) 0.6436; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as consolidation from 0.6363 is extending. While stronger recovery cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 0.6615 resistance. Break of 0.6363 will resume larger fall from 0.7156 to 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195.

In the bigger picture, current development argues that the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) is still in progress. Decisive break of 0.6169 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6021. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.6894, in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6697; (P) 0.6740; (R1) 0.6803; More…

AUD/USD recovered after hitting 0.6677 and intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will resume larger down trend to 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

In the bigger picture, decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is seen as resuming the long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Firm break of 0.6826 (2016 low) is confirm this bearish view. Further fall should be seen to 0.6008 (2008 low) next. On the upside, break of 0.7082 resistance is needed to be the first sign of medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of strong rebound.

AUD/USD’s reaches as high as 0.7635 last week as the rebound from 0.7328 extended. Further rally is expected this week as long as 0.7523 support holds. At this point, there is no clear sign of range breakout at. Hence, we’d be cautious on topping again as it approaches medium term fibonacci level at 0.7849. Meanwhile, break of 0.7523 will argue that rebound from 0.7328 is possibly completed. In that case, intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 0.7370 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re still treating price actions from 0.6826 low as a corrective pattern. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9504 to 0.6826 at 0.7849 holds, long term down trend from 1.1079 is expected to resume sooner or later. Break of 0.6826 low will target 0.6008 key support level. However, firm break of 0.7849 will indicate that rise from 0.6826 is developing into a medium term rebound, rather than a sideway pattern. In such case, stronger rise should be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.8116) and above.

In the longer term picture, while the down trend from 1.1079 might extend lower, we’re not anticipating a break of 0.6008 (2008 low) yet. We’ll look for bottoming above there to reverse the medium term trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7226; (P) 0.7263; (R1) 0.7314; More…

AUD/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside, with focus on 0.7314 key resistance. As noted before, a medium term bottom might be in place at 0.7020 already. Decisive break of 0.7314 should confirm this bullish case. Next target will be 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 next. However, on the downside, break of 0.7182 minor support will suggest that the rebound is completed. In that case, intraday bias will turn bias back to the downside for 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, as long as 0.7314 resistance holds, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed. And, the corrective pattern from 0.6826 (2016 low) is extending with another rising leg towards 0.8135 before completion.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6637; (P) 0.6703; (R1) 0.6742; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the downside at this point. Fall from 0.6898 would target 61.8% retracement of 0.6457 to 0.6898 at 0.6625. Sustained break there would bring deeper decline back to 0.6457 support. On the upside, above 0.6740 will turn intraday bias neutral first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7156 are seen as a correction to the rebound from 0.6169 for now. Break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6701) raises the chance that it’s in progress. Break of 0.6457 will resume the fall form 0.7156. On the upside, though, break of 0.6898 resistance will argue that rise form 0.6169 is ready to resume through 0.7156.

AUD/USD’s decline from 0.7156 extended to as low as 0.6563 last week but lost momentum. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Focus is on whether 0.6546 fibonacci level would provide strong support to bring reversal. On the upside, break of 0.6694 support turned resistance will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 0.6808). However, sustained break of 0.6546 will carry larger bearish implication and target 0.6169 low.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6169 (2022 low) has completed at 0.7156, after rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7158). Deeper decline would then be see back to 61.8% retracement of 0.6169 to 0.7156 at 0.6546, even as a corrective fall. Sustained break there will raise the chance of long term down trend resumption through 0.6169 low.

In the long term picture, initial rejection by 55 month EMA (now at 0.7164) retains long term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) could still resume through 0.5506 (2020 low) on resumption.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7172; (P) 0.7193; (R1) 0.7231; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 0.7277 will resume the rebound from 0.6992. Such development would also revive the case that correction form 0.8006 has completed after defending 0.6991. Further rally would be seen to 0.7555 resistance for confirmation. On the downside, however, break of 0.7128 will indicate rejection by 55 day EMA, and turn bias back to the downside for retesting 0.6991/2 key support zone.

In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 0.6991 key structural support will retain medium term bullishness. That is, whole up trend from 0.5506 is still in progress. Firm break of 0.7555 resistance will target 0.8006 high and above. However, sustained break of 0.6991 will argue that the whole up trend from 0.5506 might be finished at 0.8006, after rejection by 0.8135 long term resistance. Deeper decline would then be seen back to 61.8% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.6461.

AUD/USD’s pull back from 0.8065 short term top extended lower last week. The pair lost some downside momentum after hitting 0.7838. With 0.7948 minor resistance intact, deeper decline could be seen. But we’d expect strong support from 0.7785 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.7328 to 0.8065 at 0.7783) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.7948 will argue that the pull back is completed. In such case, intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 0.8065.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6826 medium term bottom is still in progress. At this point, there is no confirmation of trend reversal yet and we’ll continue to treat such rebound as a corrective pattern. But in any case, break of 55 month EMA (now at 0.8100) will target 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451. Break of 0.7328 support is needed to confirm completion of the rebound. Otherwise, further rise is now expected.

In the longer term picture, 0.6826 is seen as a long term bottom. Rise from there could either reverse the down trend from 1.1079, or just develop into a corrective pattern. At this point, we’re favoring the latter. And, as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.6826 at 0.8451 holds, we’d anticipate another decline through 0.6826 at a later stage.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7115; (P) 0.7164; (R1) 0.7256; More…

AUD/USD’s rally accelerates further to as high as 0.7250 so far today. The case for medium term reversal continues to build up, with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and break of falling channel resistance. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 0.7314 resistance next. Decisive break there will confirm the bullish case. However, rejection from 0.7314, followed by break of 0.7159 resistance turned support, will retain bearishness and turn focus back to 0.7020 low.

In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). On the upside, break of 0.7314 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook stays bearish even in case of strong rebound. However, firm break of 0.7314 will suggest that whole decline from 0.8135 has completed and bring stronger rise back to 55 week EMA (now at 0.7467).

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7414; (P) 0.7459; (R1) 0.7490; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral as range trading continues above 0.7408. We’re continue to expect strong support from 100% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7414 to complete the correction from 0.8006. On the upside, break of of 0.7598 resistance will turn bias back to the upside for 0.7890 resistance first. However, sustained break of 0.7414 will argue it’s at least in larger scale correction, and target 161.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.7530 from 0.7890 at 0.7120 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.5506 medium term bottom could either be the start of a long term up trend, or a corrective rise. Reactions to 0.8135 key resistance will reveal which case it is. Rejection by 0.8135 key resistance, followed by firm break of 0.7413 resistance turned support, will favor the latter case. Deeper decline would be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.8006 at 0.7051 first.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7025; (P) 0.7046; (R1) 0.7059; More…

Further decline is expected in AUD/USD for 0.7020 support. Decisive break there will resume larger decline from 0.8135 for 0.6826 key support. On the upside, in case of recovery, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7148 resistance holds. However, firm break of 0.7148 will suggest that correction from 0.7020 is extending with another rise. Intraday bias will then be turned back to the upside for 0.7393 resistance.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.7020 are corrective in nature. In case such corrective pattern extends, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.8135 to 0.7020 at 0.7446 to bring down trend resumption. Firm break of 0.7020 will extend medium term decline from 0.8135 to retest 0.6826 (2016 low).

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6689 last week but failed to sustain above channel resistance and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk stays mildly on the downside as long as 0.6689 resistance holds. Break of 0.6524 will resume the fall from 0.6689 short term top to 55 D EMA (now at 0.6491).

In the bigger picture, there is no confirmation that down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) has completed. Price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) could be just a medium term corrective pattern, with fall from 0.7156 as the second leg. For now, range trading should be seen between 0.6169 and 0.7156 (2023 high), until further developments.

In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506(2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, downside strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.

AUD/USD continued to stay in range of 0.6372/6569 last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Rebound from 0.5506 might still extend higher. But considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, upside should be limited by 0.6670 key resistance, at least on first attempt. on the downside, break of 0.6372 should indicate confirm short term reversal and bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.6569 at 0.6163 first.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign of trend reversal yet. The larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) is still in favor to extend. 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 is already met. Sustained break there will pave the way to 0.4773 (2001 low). On the upside, however, sustained break of 0.6607 will suggest medium term bottoming and turn focus to 0.7031 resistance next.

In the longer term picture, down trend from 1.1079 (2011) is still in progress. It’s a bit early to judge the depth of the down trend. But sustained break of 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507 could pave the way to 100% projection at 0.3882.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6443; (P) 0.6463; (R1) 0.6482; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD is turned neutral first with 4H MACD crossed above signal line. Some consolidations would be seen but outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6687 resistance holds. On the downside, decisive break of 61.8% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6511 from 0.6687 at 0.6421 will resume the fall from 0.6941 to 100% projection at 0.6257 next.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7402; (P) 0.7444; (R1) 0.7482; More…

Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the upside at this point. Current rally 0.5506 should target 0.7635 key long term fibonacci level. On the downside, however, break of 0.7351 will indicate short term topping and turn bias back to the downside for pull back.

In the bigger picture, the sustained trading above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6978) is a sign of medium term bullishness. Nevertheless, AUD/USD will still need to overcome 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.5506 (2020 low) at 0.7635 decisively to indicate completion of long term down trend from 1.1079. Otherwise, current rebound from 0.5506 could still turn out to be a correction in the long term down trend.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6806; (P) 0.6830; (R1) 0.6862; More...

AUD/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 0.6348 to 0.6823 from 0.6621 at 0.6915. On the downside, below 0.6736 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But outlook will remain cautiously bullish as long as 0.6621 support holds, in case of retreat.

In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.6269 as the third leg. Firm break of 6870 resistance will target 100% projection of 0.6269 to 0.6870 from 0.6340 at 0.6941. In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 0.6169/6348 to bring rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6600; (P) 0.6644; (R1) 0.6724; More...

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains on the upside as rebound from 0.6511 short term bottom is in progress. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 0.6682) will bring stronger rebound back 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6511 at 0.6777. On the downside, break of 0.6511 will resume the fall from 0.6941 instead.

In the bigger picture, rise from 0.6269 (2023 low) should have completed with three waves up to 0.6941. Corrective pattern from 0.6169 (2022 low) is now extending with another falling leg. Deeper decline would be seen back to 0.6269 as sideway trading extends.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6378; (P) 0.6532; (R1) 0.6739; More…

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6433 and outlook is unchanged. Another rise could be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 0.6717) and above. But we’d expect strong resistance from 61.8% retracement of 0.7031 to 0.6433 at 0.6803 to limit upside. On the downside, decisive break of 0.6433 will confirm larger down trend resumption.

In the bigger picture, AUD/USD’s decline from 0.8135 (2018 high) is still in progress. It’s part of the larger down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Rejection by 55 week EMA affirms medium term bearishness. Next target is 0.6008 (2008 low). Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.7031 resistance holds, even in case of strong rebound.

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6880; (P) 0.6912; (R1) 0.6947; More…

AUD/USD is staying in sideway trading from 0.7064 and intraday bias remains neutral first. The correction from 0.7064 is expected to extend with at least one more down leg. On the downside, break of 0.6776 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5506 to 0.7064 at 0.6469. Nevertheless, sustained break of 0.7064 will resume whole rise from 0.5506 instead.

In the bigger picture, rebound from 0.5506 medium term bottom could be correcting whole long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Further rally would be seen to 55 month EMA (now at 0.7323). This will remain the preferred case as long as it stays above 55 week EMA (now at 0.6721). Sustained trading below 55 week EMA will turn focus back to 0.5506 low instead.