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US initial jobless claims falls -1k to 219k

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    ActionForex.com
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    US initial jobless claims fell -1k to 219k in the week ending December 21, slightly higher than expectation of 218k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 227k.

    Continuing claims rose 46k to 1910k in the week ending December 14, highest since November 3, 2021. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3k to 1881k.

    Full US jobless claims release here.

    US consumer confidence slides to 104.7 as future outlook weakens

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      ActionForex.com
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      US Conference Board Consumer Confidence dropped to 104.7 in December, falling short of expectations for 113.2 and down from 112.8 in November. Present Situation Index slipped by -1.2 points to 140.2. The more forward-looking Expectations Index plunged -12.6 points to 81.1, nearing the critical 80 threshold that often signals recession risks.

      Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, highlighted the nature of the decline: “The recent rebound in consumer confidence was not sustained in December.”

      She attributed the drop primarily to weaker future expectations, adding, “Consumers in December were substantially less optimistic about future business conditions and incomes, with pessimism about employment prospects returning after brief optimism in October and November.”

      Full US consumer confidence release here.

      US durable goods orders slump -1.1% mom, transportation sector leads decline

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        ActionForex.com
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        US durable goods orders dropped -1.1% mom in November to USD 285.1B, significantly missing market expectations of a -0.3% mom decline. This also marks the third decline in the last four months.

        Excluding transportation, orders edged down -0.1% mom to USD 189.6B, while orders excluding defense fell -0.3% mom to USD 267.4B. The transportation equipment category, which has also fallen in three of the past four months, accounted for the largest share of the decline, with a -2.9% mom drop to USD 95.5B.

        Full US durable goods orders release here.

        Canada’s GDP beats Oct expectations, but Nov decline looms

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          ActionForex.com
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          Canada’s GDP rose 0.3% mom in October, surpassing expectations of 0.2% mom, with 12 out of 20 sectors contributing to the growth.

          This marked a rebound for the goods-producing industries, which expanded by 0.9% mom after four months of contraction, driven primarily by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.

          The services-producing industries edged up by 0.1% mom, supported by growth in real estate and rental and leasing, which saw its fifth consecutive month of expansion.

          However, preliminary data for November suggests a -0.1% mom contraction in real GDP, with declines in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, as well as transportation, warehousing, and finance and insurance. These losses were partly offset by gains in accommodation and food services and continued strength in real estate and rental and leasing.

          Full Canada GDP release here.

          Natural gas prices surge on winter demand and long-term power trends

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            ActionForex.com
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            Natural gas prices climbed to a nearly two-year high, driven by immediate weather-related demand and a bullish long-term outlook for global energy consumption.

            In the short term, forecasts for below-average temperatures across the northern hemisphere—including North America, Europe, China, and Japan—are expected to significantly increase daily heating demand as these regions, which account for more than two-thirds of global gas consumption, enter their peak heating season. This has bolstered sentiment, with limited downside for prices likely until well into 2025.

            Beyond the seasonal factors, the long-term outlook for natural gas remains robust. Rising electricity demand as the race for artificial intelligence accelerates, is projected to grow power consumption for such facilities by 10–15% annually through 2030, potentially accounting for up to 5% of global power demand by that time.

            Natural gas is expected to play a pivotal role as a baseload energy source in this transition, given its current dominance in power generation. In the US, natural gas powers approximately 40–45% of electricity production, while globally, that share is closer to 25%. However, as more countries transition from coal to gas, the share of gas in electricity generation is anticipated to increase.

            Technically, the break of 3.446 resistance last week was an important sign of underlying medium term momentum. Rise from 1.570 (Feb low) is now expected to continue to 161.8% projection of 1.570 to 3.024 from 1.852 at 4.204.

            Nevertheless, momentum should target to wane above 4.204, and, in particular, as it approaches 38.2% retracement of 10.03 to 1.570 at 4.80.

            ECB’s Lagarde: Inflation target within reach, services inflation still stubborn

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              ActionForex.com
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              In an interview with the Financial Times, ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed optimism about nearing the inflation target.

              She remarked that ECB is “very close” to declaring that inflation has been “sustainably” brought back to its 2% medium-term target.

              The latest inflation reading of 2.2% reflects the success of ECB’s restrictive monetary policy. However, she highlighted persistent concerns in the services sector, where inflation remains high at 3.9%, describing it as “not budging much” despite showing slight signs of decline.

              On the topic of US tariff threats, Lagarde emphasized the economic risks of retaliatory trade measures, stating, “Retaliation was a bad approach.” She warned that tit-for-tat trade conflicts could harm the global economy.

               

              US PCE inflation ticks up to 2.4% yoy, core unchanged at 2.8% yoy

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                ActionForex.com
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                US headline PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in November, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) also rose 0.1% mom, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Prices for goods increased less than 0.1% mom and prices for services increased 0.2% mom. Food prices increased 0.2% mom and energy prices also increased 0.2% mom.

                From the same month one year ago, headline PCE index ticked up from 2.3% yoy to 2.4% yoy, below expectation of 2.5% yoy. Core PCE was unchanged at 2.8% yoy, below expectation of 2.9% yoy. Prices for goods decreased -0.4% yoy and prices for services increased 3.8% yoy. Food prices increased 1.4% yoy and energy prices decreased -4.0% yoy.

                Personal income rose 0.3% mom or USD 71.1B, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Personal spending rose 0.4% mom or USD 81.3B. below expectation of 0.5% mom.

                Full US personal income and outlays release here.

                Canada’s retail sales rises 0.6% mom in Oct, unchanged in Nov

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                  ActionForex.com
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                  Canada’s retail sales rose 0.6% mom to CAD 67.6B in October, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Sales were up in five of nine subsectors and were led by increases at motor vehicle and parts dealers.

                  Core retail sales—which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers—were up 0.2% mom.

                  In volume terms, retail sales were unchanged.

                  Advance information suggests that sales were relatively unchanged in November.

                  Full Canada retail sales release here

                  UK retail sales edge up 0.2% mom, below 0.4% mom expectations

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                    ActionForex.com
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                    UK retail sales volumes rose by 0.2% mom in November, falling short of expectations for a 0.4% increase. This modest gain partly recovered the -0.7% mom decline recorded in October. Growth in supermarkets and non-food stores provided support, but this was partially offset by weaker performance from clothing retailers.

                    On an annual basis, sales volumes increased by 0.5% over the year to November. However, volumes remain -1.6% below their pre-pandemic levels from February 2020.

                    Looking at the broader trend, retail sales volumes rose by 0.3% in the three months to November compared with the prior three-month period. Compared to the same period last year, volumes were up by 1.9%, suggesting some resilience despite ongoing economic uncertainties.

                    Full UK retail sales release here.

                    Japan’s core CPI reaccelerates to 2.7%, driven by energy and rice

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                      ActionForex.com
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                      Japan’s core CPI (excluding food) rose to 2.7% yoy in November, marking the first reacceleration in three months and exceeding market expectations of 2.6% yoy. Core inflation has remained above the BoJ’s 2% target since April 2022, highlighting persistent price pressures. This increase was attributed to reduced government subsidies for utility bills and a sharp rise in rice prices.

                      Energy prices surged 6.0% yoy, up from October’s 2.3% yoy gain. Within this category, electricity prices jumped 9.9% yoy, and city gas costs climbed 6.4% yoy. Meanwhile, rice prices soared by a staggering 63.6% yoy, the steepest increase since 1971, driven by last year’s unusually hot summer that disrupted production.

                      Core-core CPI (excluding food and energy) ticked up from 2.3% yoy to 2.4% yoy, while headline CPI rose to 2.9% from October’s 2.3%. Service prices, a key indicator for BOJ as they often reflect wage dynamics, increased 1.5% yoy, unchanged from the prior month.

                      Full Japan CPI release here.

                      NZ’s exports rises 9.1% yoy in Nov, imports up 3.9% yoy

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                        ActionForex.com
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                        New Zealand’s trade data for November showed a significant improvement, with goods exports rising 9.1% yoy to NZD 6.5B, while goods imports increased by a more modest 3.9% yoy to NZD 6.9B. The resulting trade deficit of NZD -437m was much smaller than the expected NZD -1951m.

                        Exports saw notable gains across key markets. Shipments to China increased 6.3% yoy, adding NZD 106m, while exports to Australia climbed 8.4% yoy (NZD 62m) and to the US by 12% yoy (NZD 85m). Exports to the EU surged the most, rising 27% yoy (NZD 74m), with shipments to Japan also showing strength at 7.2% yoy (NZD 19m).

                        On the import side, data was more mixed. Imports from China edged down -1.7% yoy (NZD -29m) and from the EU fell sharply by -16% yoy (NZD -163m). Similarly, imports from South Korea dropped -12% yoy (NZD -61m ). However, imports from Australia rose 14% yoy (NZD 101m) and from the US increased 7.2% yoy (NZD 41 m).

                        Full NZ trade balance release here.

                        US initial jobless claims fall back to 220k

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
                          -

                          US initial jobless claims fell -22k to 220k in the week ending December 14, below expectation of 240k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1k to 224k.

                          Continuing claims fell -5k to 1874k in the week ending December 7. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -6k to 1880k.

                          Full US jobless claims release here.

                          BoE stands pat with dovish 6-3 vote

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                            ActionForex.com
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                            BoE held its Bank Rate steady at 4.75%, in line with expectations, but the vote leaned more dovish than before. Three MPC members—Swati Dhingra, Dave Ramsden, and Alan Taylor—voted for a rate cut.

                            BoE reaffirmed that a “gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate” and emphasized the need to maintain restrictive policy “for sufficiently long” to ensure inflation sustainably returns to 2% target. Decisions on the degree of restrictiveness will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basi.

                            The statement acknowledged that headline CPI inflation rose to 2.6% in November, slightly above prior expectations, while services inflation remained persistently high. Inflation is expected to rise slightly in the near term.

                            Meanwhile, indicators of near-term activity have weakened, and staff now expect GDP growth to fall short of projections from the November Monetary Policy Report, although the labor market is seen as broadly balanced.

                            BoE also flagged uncertainties arising from global inflationary shocks, geopolitical risks, trade policy developments, and measures in the Autumn Budget, all of which could impact growth and inflation.

                            Full BoE statement here.

                            German Gfk consumer sentiment improves slightly but remains fragile

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
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                              Germany’s GfK Consumer Sentiment Index for January rose to -21.3, improving from December’s -23.1.

                              December’s subindices reflected mixed dynamics: economic expectations moved into positive territory at 0.3, up from -3.6, and income expectations increased to 1.4 from -3.5. Willingness to buy also ticked higher to -5.4 from -6.0, while willingness to save fell sharply to 5.9 from 11.9.

                              According to Rolf Bürkl, consumer expert at NIM, the improvement comes after a steep decline the prior month, partially reversing earlier losses. However, Bürkl noted that at -21.3 points, consumer sentiment remains at a very low level, highlighting a trend of “stagnation since mid-2024.”

                              He warned that a sustained recovery is “not yet in sight” due to persistent challenges. High food and energy prices, alongside growing concerns about job security in key sectors, continue to weigh heavily on sentiment.

                              Full German Gfk consumer sentiment release here.

                              BoJ stand pat, highlights wage and global risks

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                BoJ kept its uncollateralized overnight call rate unchanged at 0.25%, as widely anticipated, with an 8-1 vote in favor. Naoki Tamura dissented, advocating for a rate increase to 0.50%.

                                Governor Kazuo Ueda, speaking at the post-meeting press conference, reiterated that rate hikes would proceed cautiously. He noted, “If the economy and prices move in line with our forecast, we will continue to raise our policy rate,” but emphasized the need to carefully assess data before adjusting the level of monetary support.

                                The gradual pace of tightening, he explained, is due to the “moderate” rise in underlying inflation, which lacks the strength to warrant aggressive moves.

                                Ueda highlighted the importance of monitoring wage dynamics, particularly in the context of next year’s wage negotiations, to gauge the strength of Japan’s wage-inflation cycle.

                                He also pointed to uncertainties in the global economic outlook and the impacts of policy decisions under the incoming U.S. administration, despite the overall resilience of the US economy.

                                Full BoJ statement here.

                                NZ ANZ business confidence falls to 62.3, demand recovery offers glimmers of hope

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
                                  -

                                  New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence Index fell to 62.3 in December, down from 64.9. However, some subindices showed encouraging signs of recovery. The own activity outlook improved to 50.3 from 48.0, while profit expectations rose significantly to 31.1 from 26.5. Investment intentions also jumped to 21.5 from 18.0, signaling increased business willingness to allocate resources despite a challenging environment.

                                  However, labor market metrics were mixed, with employment intentions slipping slightly from 14.7 to 14.3. At the same time, cost pressures intensified sharply, as cost expectations surged to 70.1 from 62.9, and wage expectations jumped from 75.5 to 79.2. Price intentions remained steady at 42.7, slightly up from 42.2, while inflation expectations ticked higher to 2.63%, up from 2.53%, reflecting ongoing pricing pressures.

                                  ANZ noted that while the survey results indicate signs of recovering demand, they come against the backdrop of this morning’s weak Q3 GDP figures, which showed a sharp contraction. The low bar set by the GDP downturn provides room for optimism if demand continues to improve. However, rising cost and wage pressures could complicate the outlook, especially for inflation management.

                                  Full NZ ANZ business confidence release here.

                                  New Zealand’s GDP contracts -1% qoq in Q3, broad economic weakness

                                    By
                                    ActionForex.com
                                    -

                                    New Zealand’s economy contracted by -1.0% qoq in Q3, significantly worse than market expectations of -0.2%. The previous quarter’s GDP figure was also revised down sharply, from -0.2% to -1.1%, painting a grimmer picture of the country’s economic performance.

                                    The decline was broad-based, with activity falling in 11 out of 16 industries, including significant contractions in manufacturing, business services, and construction. While primary industries posted gains, both goods-producing and service industries experienced declines.

                                    On a per capita basis, GDP dropped -1.2% qoq, marking the eighth consecutive quarterly decline. The expenditure measure of GDP also contracted by -0.8% qoq. Notably, household consumption expenditure decreased by -0.3% qoq, with reductions in spending on essentials such as grocery food and electricity, highlighting the strain on consumer budgets.

                                    Full NZ GDP release here.

                                    EUR/USD to fall towards 1.0330 after FOMC

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      Dollar jumps across the board after Fed’s hawkish rate cut, with economic projections giving a strong nod to market expectations of slower policy easing, and a higher terminal rate.

                                      EUR/USD’s fall from 1.0629 resumed by breaking through 1.0452. Decline from 1.1213 might also be resuming and break of 1.0330 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0936 to 10330 from 1.0629 at 1.0254.

                                      USD/CHF’s breach of 0.8974 suggest that the brief retreat has completed. Further rise should be in progress as rally from 0.8374 resume to 61.8% projection of 0.8374 to 0.8956 from 0.8735 at 0.9095.

                                      Fed cuts 25bps, projects slower easing Path amid higher inflation expectations

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
                                        -

                                        Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 4.25–4.50%, as widely expected. However, the decision was not unanimous, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting, favoring a pause in rate cuts.

                                        The updated median economic projections reflect a more cautious approach to easing.

                                        Fed now expects rates to fall to 3.9% by the end of 2025, equivalent to just two additional 25bps cuts, a notable shift from the 3.4% projected in September.

                                        Rates are forecast to decline further to 3.4% by the end of 2026 and 3.1% by 2027, both revised up from 2.9%. The longer-run neutral rate was also adjusted upward from 2.9% to 3.0%, indicating that the Fed anticipates rates will reach neutrality only by 2027, underlining a much slower easing pace.

                                        Inflation projections also revised higher, justifying the Fed’s cautious outlook. The headline PCE inflation forecast for 2025 was raised from 2.1% to 2.5%, while core PCE inflation was increased from 2.2% to 2.5%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures that warrant a more measured approach to policy normalization.

                                        Full FOMC statement here.

                                        Full Fed Summary of Economic Projections here.

                                        ECB’s Lane stresses agility in rate path amid elevated uncertainty

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                                          ActionForex.com
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                                          ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane highlighted the importance of maintaining “agility” in monetary policy decisions during a speech today. Lane emphasized that in the current environment of elevated uncertainty, ECB’s “prudent” approach will be guided by a meeting-by-meeting strategy without pre-committing to any specific rate path.

                                          Lane outlined that the pace of monetary easing will depend on the balance of risks. If the inflation outlook or economic momentum experiences upside shocks, “monetary easing can proceed more slowly ” compared to the December projections.

                                          Conversely, in the case of downside shocks, the easing process could accelerate. He further noted that the rate path would also depend on ECB’s “ongoing assessment of underlying inflation dynamics and the strength of monetary policy transmission.”

                                          Full speech of ECB’s Lane here.

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